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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Tale of the tape

16-12-0 UFC record 3-0-0
KO 5 · Sub 6 Finishes KO 2 · Sub 1
+1 Streak +3
33 Age 30
6'3" 191 cm Height 5'10" 178 cm
81" 206 cm Reach 72" 183 cm
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
1594 Global Elo 1593
1539 Elo rating 1567
Kevin Holland — Notable
At a glance
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • 69% of wins by KO or submission
  • 31% of wins finished in round 1
  • 89% takedown defense in last 3 fights
Jacobe Smith — Notable
At a glance

Kevin Holland — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1285 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
55% Head
  • Head 55%
  • Body 19%
  • Leg 27%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
75% Distance
  • Distance 75%
  • Clinch 13%
  • Ground 12%

Jacobe Smith — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 91 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
71% Head
  • Head 71%
  • Body 16%
  • Leg 12%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
62% Distance
  • Distance 62%
  • Clinch 2%
  • Ground 36%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.22
6.85
div avg 4.04
50%
63%
div avg 50%
3.31
3.61
div avg 3.06
50%
46%
div avg 56%
0.84
4.52
div avg 2.25
40%
100%
div avg 42%
57%
100%
div avg 72%
0.64
1.13
div avg 0.54
2
7
div avg 4

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Kevin Holland
69% finish rate
KO 5 · Sub 6
can finish?
Jacobe Smith
finished
no losses
Jacobe Smith
100% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 1
can finish?
Kevin Holland
finished 42%
5 of 12 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Kevin Holland has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1629 vs 1511, 6 quality wins to 0.

Kevin Holland red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1629
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
6
of 16 UFC wins
Toughest win
Vicente Luque
Elo 1674 at fight time
Expected wins
13.9
+2.1 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 28 fights
1588
1625
Jacobe Smith blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1511
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Niko Price
Elo 1545 at fight time
Expected wins
1.6
+1.4 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 3 fights
1487
1500
Corner A recent form
Kevin Holland
Corner B recent form
Jacobe Smith
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Kevin Holland & Jacobe Smith on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.