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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Tale of the tape

11-9-0 UFC record 7-2-0
KO 7 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 5 · Sub 0
-1 Streak +4
42 Age 30
5'11" 180 cm Height 6'2" 188 cm
77" 196 cm Reach 79" 201 cm
Switch Stance Switch
1600 Global Elo 1602
1547 Elo rating 1562
Jared Cannonier — Notable
At a glance
  • Earned a bonus in 3 of last 5 fights
  • 64% of wins by KO/TKO
  • 100% takedown defense in last 3 fights
  • UFC veteran since 2015
Christian Leroy Duncan — Notable
At a glance
  • 4-fight UFC win streak
  • Has never been finished — durability signal
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • 71% of wins by KO/TKO

Jared Cannonier — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1230 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
63% Head
  • Head 63%
  • Body 20%
  • Leg 17%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
81% Distance
  • Distance 81%
  • Clinch 11%
  • Ground 7%

Christian Leroy Duncan — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 401 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
49% Head
  • Head 49%
  • Body 15%
  • Leg 36%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
76% Distance
  • Distance 76%
  • Clinch 16%
  • Ground 8%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.42
4.43
div avg 4.47
50%
58%
div avg 51%
4.35
2.59
div avg 3.48
56%
53%
div avg 54%
0.54
0.33
div avg 1.73
40%
17%
div avg 44%
65%
63%
div avg 69%
0.00
0.00
div avg 0.52
2
3
div avg 3

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Jared Cannonier
64% finish rate
KO 7 · Sub 0
can finish?
Christian Leroy Duncan
finished 0%
never finished
Christian Leroy Duncan
71% finish rate
KO 5 · Sub 0
can finish?
Jared Cannonier
finished 33%
3 of 9 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Jared Cannonier has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1608 vs 1566, 7 quality wins to 1.

Jared Cannonier red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1608
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
7
of 11 UFC wins
Toughest win
Anderson Silva
Elo 1715 at fight time
Expected wins
8.9
+2.1 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 20 fights
1544
1556
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1566
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
1
of 7 UFC wins
Toughest win
Roman Dolidze
Elo 1617 at fight time
Expected wins
4.6
+2.4 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 9 fights
1482
1617

Common opponents

1 shared opponent · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

Corner A recent form
Jared Cannonier
Corner B recent form
Christian Leroy Duncan
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Jared Cannonier & Christian Leroy Duncan on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.