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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Tale of the tape

2-0-0 UFC record 0-3-0
KO 1 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 0 · Sub 0
+2 Streak -3
28 Age 30
5'8" 173 cm Height 5'5" 165 cm
67" 170 cm Reach 65" 165 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1548 Global Elo 1412
1522 Elo rating 1386
Alden Coria — Notable
At a glance
  • 50% of wins by KO/TKO
Stewart Nicoll — Notable
At a glance
  • 3-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • Performance of the Night in last fight

Alden Coria — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 121 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
71% Head
  • Head 71%
  • Body 13%
  • Leg 16%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
82% Distance
  • Distance 82%
  • Clinch 5%
  • Ground 13%

Stewart Nicoll — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 100 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
71% Head
  • Head 71%
  • Body 16%
  • Leg 13%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
94% Distance
  • Distance 94%
  • Clinch 0%
  • Ground 6%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.69
3.63
div avg 3.86
45%
39%
div avg 47%
2.40
5.84
div avg 3.24
70%
50%
div avg 56%
1.75
1.63
div avg 1.55
50%
12%
div avg 38%
71%
29%
div avg 64%
0.00
0.00
div avg 0.73
3
2
div avg 3

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Alden Coria
50% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Stewart Nicoll
finished 67%
2 of 3 losses
Stewart Nicoll
0% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 0
can finish?
Alden Coria
finished
no losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1478 (Alden Coria) vs 1493 (Stewart Nicoll).

Alden Coria red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1478
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win
Alessandro Costa
Elo 1515 at fight time
Expected wins
1.1
+0.9 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 2 fights
1515
1441
Stewart Nicoll blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1493
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 0 UFC wins
Toughest win
Expected wins
1.4
−1.4 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 3 fights
1529
1481

Common opponents

1 shared opponent · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

Corner A recent form
Alden Coria
Corner B recent form
Stewart Nicoll
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Alden Coria & Stewart Nicoll on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.