Other bouts 9
- 1women's strawweight MainAmanda RibasvsFatima Kline
- 2middleweightBrad TavaresvsMarc-Andre Barriault
- 3welterweightKevin HollandvsJacobe Smith
- 4middleweightJared CannoniervsChristian Leroy Duncan
- 7lightweightChase HoopervsMitch Ramirez
- 9women's flyweightVeronica HardyvsDione Barbosa
- 10heavyweightAlvin HinesvsAllen Frye Jr.
- 12featherweightTommy McmillenvsAlberto Montes
- 13featherweightJose DelgadovsAustin Bashi
Honest Elo Meter
20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty
By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.
Share your result
Pick how you'd like to share. Copy image works in most chat / social apps — copy here, then paste into the post directly. Download saves a PNG you can attach manually.
Independent UFC analytics
Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.
Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.
Other fights on this card · 9
Tale of the tape
| 2-0-0 | UFC record | 0-3-0 |
| KO 1 · Sub 0 | Finishes | KO 0 · Sub 0 |
| +2 | Streak | -3 |
| 28 | Age | 30 |
| 5'8" 173 cm | Height | 5'5" 165 cm |
| 67" 170 cm | Reach | 65" 165 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 1548 | Global Elo | 1412 |
| 1522 | Elo rating | 1386 |
Alden Coria — Notable ▼
- 50% of wins by KO/TKO
Stewart Nicoll — Notable ▼
- 3-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
- Performance of the Night in last fight
Alden Coria — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 121 landed total · career
- Head 71%
- Body 13%
- Leg 16%
- Distance 82%
- Clinch 5%
- Ground 13%
Stewart Nicoll — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 100 landed total · career
- Head 71%
- Body 16%
- Leg 13%
- Distance 94%
- Clinch 0%
- Ground 6%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Joshua Van8.43
- 2Brandon Royval5.54
- 3Jose Ochoa5.16
- 4Daniel Barez4.97
- 5Cj Vergara4.95
- 1Joshua Van57%
- 2Cj Vergara57%
- 3Andre Lima56%
- 4Manel Kape55%
- 5Tatsuro Taira54%
- 1Jose Johnson1.85
- 2Nyamjargal Tumendemberel1.92
- 3Allan Nascimento1.93
- 4Asu Almabayev1.99
- 5Joseph Morales2.05
- 1Matheus Nicolau66%
- 2Kai Kara-France64%
- 3Kyoji Horiguchi64%
- 4Sumudaerji62%
- 5Mitch Raposo61%
- 1Asu Almabayev4.46
- 2Tim Elliott3.61
- 3Rei Tsuruya3.60
- 4Tatsuro Taira3.57
- 5Azat Maksum3.50
- 1Brandon Royval75%
- 2Nyamjargal Tumendemberel67%
- 3Jose Johnson67%
- 4Joshua Van62%
- 5Andre Lima57%
- 1Lone'Er Kavanagh94%
- 2Matheus Nicolau90%
- 3Andre Lima88%
- 4Azat Maksum86%
- 5Alessandro Costa84%
- 1Joseph Morales3.04
- 2Jimmy Flick2.39
- 3Edgar Chairez1.67
- 4Tagir Ulanbekov1.52
- 5Asu Almabayev1.49
- 1Tatsuro Taira8.08
- 2Asu Almabayev6.98
- 3Tagir Ulanbekov6.11
- 4Rei Tsuruya5.59
- 5Allan Nascimento5.00
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1478 (Alden Coria) vs 1493 (Stewart Nicoll).
Common opponents
1 shared opponent · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.
- Feb 21, 2026
- Sep 13, 2025
- Apr 4, 2026
- Oct 11, 2025
- Aug 17, 2024