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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Tale of the tape

16-12-0 UFC record 6-10-0
KO 2 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 3 · Sub 1
-2 Streak -2
38 Age 36
6'1" 185 cm Height 6'1" 185 cm
74" 188 cm Reach 74" 188 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1545 Global Elo 1468
1500 Elo rating 1420
Brad Tavares — Notable
At a glance
  • UFC veteran since 2010
Marc-Andre Barriault — Notable
At a glance
  • Fight of the Night in last fight
  • Earned a bonus in 5 of last 5 fights
  • 67% of wins by KO or submission
  • 33% of wins finished in round 1

Brad Tavares — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1243 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
59% Head
  • Head 59%
  • Body 17%
  • Leg 23%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
84% Distance
  • Distance 84%
  • Clinch 12%
  • Ground 4%

Marc-Andre Barriault — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 921 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
71% Head
  • Head 71%
  • Body 21%
  • Leg 8%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
67% Distance
  • Distance 67%
  • Clinch 27%
  • Ground 6%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

3.41
5.54
div avg 4.47
44%
47%
div avg 51%
3.32
6.07
div avg 3.48
55%
49%
div avg 54%
0.70
0.27
div avg 1.73
27%
23%
div avg 44%
80%
68%
div avg 69%
0.00
0.09
div avg 0.52
2
1
div avg 3

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Brad Tavares
13% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 0
can finish?
Marc-Andre Barriault
finished 40%
4 of 10 losses
Marc-Andre Barriault
67% finish rate
KO 3 · Sub 1
can finish?
Brad Tavares
finished 50%
6 of 12 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1541 (Brad Tavares) vs 1531 (Marc-Andre Barriault).

Brad Tavares red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1541
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
4
of 16 UFC wins
Toughest win
Chris Weidman
Elo 1650 at fight time
Expected wins
15.3
+0.7 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 28 fights
1500
1529
Marc-Andre Barriault blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1531
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 6 UFC wins
Toughest win
Abu Azaitar
Elo 1531 at fight time
Expected wins
7.0
−1.0 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 16 fights
1517
1557

Common opponents

4 shared opponents · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

  • L
    W
    Decision - Unanimous
    Decision - Unanimous
    Mar 14, 2026
    Jun 10, 2023
  • L
    W
    KO/TKO
    KO/TKO
    Apr 22, 2023
    May 10, 2025
  • L
    L
    Decision - Split
    Decision - Unanimous
    Oct 12, 2024
    Dec 21, 2019
  • W
    L
    KO/TKO
    Decision - Split
    Apr 14, 2018
    Jul 27, 2019
Corner A recent form
Brad Tavares
Corner B recent form
Marc-Andre Barriault
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Brad Tavares & Marc-Andre Barriault on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.