HonestElo
← welterweight

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Active #40 welterweight · Orthodox · 183 cm · reach 185 cm
Elo rating
1584 ±40
LCB 1532
Rank
#40
top 43% of division
UFC record
12-8-0
KO 7 · Sub 0 · Dec 5
Streak
-1
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -19
Last fight
May 3, 2025
L by KO

Elo history

20 fights · tap & drag
Nov 9, 2013 — L vs Ryan LaFlare Δ-26Sep 13, 2014 — W vs Wendell Oliveira Marques Δ+36Feb 22, 2015 — W vs Sean Strickland Δ+34Jun 27, 2015 — L vs Lorenz Larkin Δ-40Dec 10, 2015 — W vs Andreas Stahl Δ+30Apr 16, 2016 — W vs Court McGee Δ+19Aug 6, 2016 — W vs Zak Cummings Δ+18Feb 19, 2017 — W vs Nordine Taleb Δ+17Jul 16, 2017 — W vs Gunnar Nelson Δ+21Dec 16, 2017 — W vs Mike Perry Δ+16Nov 17, 2018 — W vs Neil Magny Δ+20Jan 16, 2021 — L vs Li Jingliang Δ-21Jun 5, 2021 — W vs Miguel Baeza Δ+15Dec 11, 2021 — L vs Geoff Neal Δ-17May 21, 2022 — L vs Michel Pereira Δ-17Dec 10, 2022 — W vs Alex Morono Δ+19Apr 8, 2023 — L vs Kevin Holland Δ-20Jul 13, 2024 — L vs Muslim Salikhov Δ-17Jan 11, 2025 — W vs Carlston Harris Δ+18May 3, 2025 — L vs Daniel Rodriguez Δ-19 14341496155816201683 201520172019202120232025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":201.9,"elo":1474,"date":"2013-11-09","opp":"Ryan LaFlare","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":1,"x":86.6,"y":171.6,"elo":1509,"date":"2014-09-13","opp":"Wendell Oliveira Marques","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":2,"x":119.5,"y":142.9,"elo":1543,"date":"2015-02-22","opp":"Sean Strickland","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":3,"x":144.9,"y":177.3,"elo":1503,"date":"2015-06-27","opp":"Lorenz Larkin","result":"L","delta":-40},{"i":4,"x":178.6,"y":151.5,"elo":1533,"date":"2015-12-10","opp":"Andreas Stahl","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":5,"x":204.6,"y":135,"elo":1552,"date":"2016-04-16","opp":"Court McGee","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":6,"x":227.4,"y":120,"elo":1570,"date":"2016-08-06","opp":"Zak Cummings","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":7,"x":267.4,"y":105.8,"elo":1587,"date":"2017-02-19","opp":"Nordine Taleb","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":8,"x":297.3,"y":88.4,"elo":1607,"date":"2017-07-16","opp":"Gunnar Nelson","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":9,"x":328.4,"y":74.9,"elo":1623,"date":"2017-12-16","opp":"Mike Perry","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":10,"x":396.7,"y":58.1,"elo":1643,"date":"2018-11-17","opp":"Neil Magny","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":11,"x":557.4,"y":76.4,"elo":1621,"date":"2021-01-16","opp":"Li Jingliang","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":12,"x":585.8,"y":63.6,"elo":1636,"date":"2021-06-05","opp":"Miguel Baeza","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":13,"x":624.2,"y":78,"elo":1619,"date":"2021-12-11","opp":"Geoff Neal","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":14,"x":657,"y":92.1,"elo":1603,"date":"2022-05-21","opp":"Michel Pereira","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":15,"x":698.2,"y":76.1,"elo":1621,"date":"2022-12-10","opp":"Alex Morono","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":16,"x":722.4,"y":93.6,"elo":1601,"date":"2023-04-08","opp":"Kevin Holland","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":17,"x":816.3,"y":107.9,"elo":1584,"date":"2024-07-13","opp":"Muslim Salikhov","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":18,"x":853.2,"y":92.5,"elo":1602,"date":"2025-01-11","opp":"Carlston Harris","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":19,"x":876,"y":108.3,"elo":1584,"date":"2025-05-03","opp":"Daniel Rodriguez","result":"L","delta":-19}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
May 3, 2025 Daniel Rodriguez L -19
Jan 11, 2025 Carlston Harris W +18
Jul 13, 2024 Muslim Salikhov L -17
Apr 8, 2023 Kevin Holland L -20
Dec 10, 2022 Alex Morono W +19

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.33 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
42% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.24 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
62% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.54 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
27% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
71% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
58%
7 / 12
Finish rate
KO
7
58% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
5
42% of wins
KO: 7 (58%) 7 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 5 (42%) 5
Finishes by round
7 total
R1
4 57%
R2
R3
2 29%
R4
1 14%
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1591
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
10.1
actual +2 vs expected