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Daniel Rodriguez

Active #19 welterweight · Southpaw · 185 cm · reach 188 cm
Elo rating
1632 ±35
LCB 1588
Rank
#19
top 20% of division
UFC record
10-4-0
KO 3 · Sub 1 · Dec 6
Streak
+3
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +34
Last fight
Jul 19, 2025
W by Decision

Elo history

14 fights · tap & drag
Feb 15, 2020 — W vs Tim Means Δ+38May 30, 2020 — W vs Gabe Green Δ+26Aug 22, 2020 — W vs Dwight Grant Δ+31Nov 21, 2020 — L vs Nicolas Dalby Δ-36Apr 10, 2021 — W vs Mike Perry Δ+29Jul 17, 2021 — W vs Preston Parsons Δ+14Aug 28, 2021 — W vs Kevin Lee Δ+17Sep 10, 2022 — W vs Li Jingliang Δ+16Nov 5, 2022 — L vs Neil Magny Δ-17May 13, 2023 — L vs Ian Machado Garry Δ-19Jun 22, 2024 — L vs Kelvin Gastelum Δ-16Oct 12, 2024 — W vs Alex Morono Δ+16May 3, 2025 — W vs Santiago Ponzinibbio Δ+19Jul 19, 2025 — W vs Kevin Holland Δ+16 14981542158616301674 20212022202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":187.8,"elo":1538,"date":"2020-02-15","opp":"Tim Means","result":"W","delta":38},{"i":1,"x":69.2,"y":157,"elo":1564,"date":"2020-05-30","opp":"Gabe Green","result":"W","delta":26},{"i":2,"x":105.3,"y":119.5,"elo":1595,"date":"2020-08-22","opp":"Dwight Grant","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":3,"x":144.4,"y":162.5,"elo":1559,"date":"2020-11-21","opp":"Nicolas Dalby","result":"L","delta":-36},{"i":4,"x":204.6,"y":127.8,"elo":1588,"date":"2021-04-10","opp":"Mike Perry","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":5,"x":246.8,"y":111.1,"elo":1602,"date":"2021-07-17","opp":"Preston Parsons","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":6,"x":264.8,"y":90.9,"elo":1618,"date":"2021-08-28","opp":"Kevin Lee","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":7,"x":427.4,"y":72.2,"elo":1634,"date":"2022-09-10","opp":"Li Jingliang","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":8,"x":451.5,"y":92.9,"elo":1617,"date":"2022-11-05","opp":"Neil Magny","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":9,"x":532.8,"y":115.4,"elo":1598,"date":"2023-05-13","opp":"Ian Machado Garry","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":10,"x":707.4,"y":134.5,"elo":1582,"date":"2024-06-22","opp":"Kelvin Gastelum","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":11,"x":755.6,"y":115.2,"elo":1598,"date":"2024-10-12","opp":"Alex Morono","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":12,"x":842.9,"y":92.8,"elo":1617,"date":"2025-05-03","opp":"Santiago Ponzinibbio","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":13,"x":876,"y":74.1,"elo":1632,"date":"2025-07-19","opp":"Kevin Holland","result":"W","delta":16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jul 19, 2025 Kevin Holland W +16
May 3, 2025 Santiago Ponzinibbio W +19
Oct 12, 2024 Alex Morono W +16
Jun 22, 2024 Kelvin Gastelum L -16
May 13, 2023 Ian Machado Garry L -19

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
6.69 avg 3.48
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
49% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.93 avg 2.76
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
57% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.17 avg 1.85
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
29% avg 43%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
64% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.09 avg 0.46
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 4
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
40%
4 / 10
Finish rate
KO
3
30% of wins
SUB
1
10% of wins
DEC
6
60% of wins
KO: 3 (30%) 3 Sub: 1 (10%) 1 Dec: 6 (60%) 6
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
2 50%
R2
1 25%
R3
1 25%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1601
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
7.2
actual +3 vs expected