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Gunnar Nelson "Gunni"

Active #30 welterweight · age 37 · Switch · 5'11" 180 cm · 170 lb 77 kg · reach 72" 183 cm
At a glance
Elo rating
1552
Global Elo 1602 ±38
Rank
#30
top 39% of division
UFC record
10-6-0
KO 0 · Sub 8 · Dec 2
Streak
-1
Δ90d -1 · Δ1y -1
Last fight
Mar 22, 2025
Loss by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
2h 45m
Avg fight time
10:20
Bonuses
7
Fights per year
1.3
Ground control
58m
Since last fight
1y 3mo

Honest Elo history

16 fights · tap & drag
Sep 29, 2012 — W vs DaMarques Johnson Δ+33Feb 16, 2013 — W vs Jorge Santiago Δ+20Mar 8, 2014 — W vs Omari Akhmedov Δ+32Jul 19, 2014 — W vs Zak Cummings Δ+31Oct 4, 2014 — L vs Rick Story Δ-30Jul 11, 2015 — W vs Brandon Thatch Δ+16Dec 12, 2015 — L vs Demian Maia Δ-13May 8, 2016 — W vs Albert Tumenov Δ+20Mar 18, 2017 — W vs Alan Jouban Δ+17Jul 16, 2017 — L vs Santiago Ponzinibbio Δ-20Dec 8, 2018 — W vs Alex Oliveira Δ+20Mar 16, 2019 — L vs Leon Edwards Δ-16Sep 28, 2019 — L vs Gilbert Burns Δ-15Mar 19, 2022 — W vs Takashi Sato Δ+12Mar 18, 2023 — W vs Bryan Barberena Δ+17Mar 22, 2025 — L vs Kevin Holland Δ-19 1450147515001525155015751600 2015201820212024 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":342.2,"elo":1482,"date":"2012-09-29","opp":"DaMarques Johnson","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":112.1,"y":298.6,"elo":1502,"date":"2013-02-16","opp":"Jorge Santiago","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":2,"x":172.9,"y":231.4,"elo":1534,"date":"2014-03-08","opp":"Omari Akhmedov","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":3,"x":194,"y":165.5,"elo":1565,"date":"2014-07-19","opp":"Zak Cummings","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":4,"x":206.1,"y":229.9,"elo":1534,"date":"2014-10-04","opp":"Rick Story","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":5,"x":250.4,"y":195.4,"elo":1551,"date":"2015-07-11","opp":"Brandon Thatch","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":6,"x":274.7,"y":222.3,"elo":1538,"date":"2015-12-12","opp":"Demian Maia","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":7,"x":298.1,"y":180.5,"elo":1558,"date":"2016-05-08","opp":"Albert Tumenov","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":8,"x":347.7,"y":144.2,"elo":1575,"date":"2017-03-18","opp":"Alan Jouban","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":9,"x":366.7,"y":187.9,"elo":1554,"date":"2017-07-16","opp":"Santiago Ponzinibbio","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":10,"x":447.2,"y":146.3,"elo":1574,"date":"2018-12-08","opp":"Alex Oliveira","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":11,"x":462.7,"y":180.5,"elo":1558,"date":"2019-03-16","opp":"Leon Edwards","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":12,"x":493.7,"y":213.3,"elo":1542,"date":"2019-09-28","opp":"Gilbert Burns","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":13,"x":636.4,"y":187.3,"elo":1554,"date":"2022-03-19","opp":"Takashi Sato","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":14,"x":693.9,"y":152.1,"elo":1571,"date":"2023-03-18","opp":"Bryan Barberena","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":15,"x":810,"y":191.8,"elo":1552,"date":"2025-03-22","opp":"Kevin Holland","result":"L","delta":-19}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 22, 2025 Kevin Holland L -19
Mar 18, 2023 Bryan Barberena W +17
Mar 19, 2022 Takashi Sato W +12
Sep 28, 2019 Gilbert Burns L -15
Mar 16, 2019 Leon Edwards L -16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
80%
8 / 10
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
8
80% of wins
DEC
2
20% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 8 (80%) 8 Dec: 2 (20%) 2
Finishes by round
8 total
R1
4 50%
R2
4 50%
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 292 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
76% Head
  • Head 76%
  • Body 16%
  • Leg 8%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
51% Distance
  • Distance 51%
  • Clinch 11%
  • Ground 39%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
17%
of losses by finish
1 of 6
1 KO/TKO 0 Sub 5 Dec Never submitted

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1578
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
2
of 10 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Alex Oliveira
Elo 1626 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
8.4
+1.6 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 16 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1499
1565
Notable wins
Alex Oliveira 1626 Albert Tumenov 1613

Top welterweight

See full rankings →
Islam Makhachev C
#1 · Elo 1802
Kamaru Usman
#2 · Elo 1691
Shavkat Rakhmonov
#3 · Elo 1679
Michael Morales
#4 · Elo 1671
Ian Machado Garry
#5 · Elo 1669
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Gunnar Nelson on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.