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Gunnar Nelson

Active #30 welterweight · Switch · 180 cm · reach 183 cm
Elo rating
1603 ±37
LCB 1556
Rank
#30
top 32% of division
UFC record
10-6-0
KO 0 · Sub 8 · Dec 2
Streak
-1
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y 0
Last fight
Mar 22, 2025
L by Decision

Elo history

16 fights · tap & drag
Sep 29, 2012 — W vs DaMarques Johnson Δ+33Feb 16, 2013 — W vs Jorge Santiago Δ+20Mar 8, 2014 — W vs Omari Akhmedov Δ+32Jul 19, 2014 — W vs Zak Cummings Δ+31Oct 4, 2014 — L vs Rick Story Δ-30Jul 11, 2015 — W vs Brandon Thatch Δ+16Dec 12, 2015 — L vs Demian Maia Δ-13May 8, 2016 — W vs Albert Tumenov Δ+20Mar 18, 2017 — W vs Alan Jouban Δ+17Jul 16, 2017 — L vs Santiago Ponzinibbio Δ-20Dec 8, 2018 — W vs Alex Oliveira Δ+20Mar 16, 2019 — L vs Leon Edwards Δ-16Sep 28, 2019 — L vs Gilbert Burns Δ-15Mar 19, 2022 — W vs Takashi Sato Δ+12Mar 18, 2023 — W vs Bryan Barberena Δ+17Mar 22, 2025 — L vs Kevin Holland Δ-19 14931536157916231666 2015201820212024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":186.9,"elo":1533,"date":"2012-09-29","opp":"DaMarques Johnson","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":50.2,"y":161.9,"elo":1553,"date":"2013-02-16","opp":"Jorge Santiago","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":2,"x":122.2,"y":123.3,"elo":1585,"date":"2014-03-08","opp":"Omari Akhmedov","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":3,"x":147,"y":85.3,"elo":1616,"date":"2014-07-19","opp":"Zak Cummings","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":4,"x":161.4,"y":122.4,"elo":1586,"date":"2014-10-04","opp":"Rick Story","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":5,"x":213.8,"y":102.5,"elo":1602,"date":"2015-07-11","opp":"Brandon Thatch","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":6,"x":242.6,"y":118,"elo":1589,"date":"2015-12-12","opp":"Demian Maia","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":7,"x":270.2,"y":93.9,"elo":1609,"date":"2016-05-08","opp":"Albert Tumenov","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":8,"x":328.9,"y":73.1,"elo":1626,"date":"2017-03-18","opp":"Alan Jouban","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":9,"x":351.4,"y":98.2,"elo":1605,"date":"2017-07-16","opp":"Santiago Ponzinibbio","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":10,"x":446.7,"y":74.3,"elo":1625,"date":"2018-12-08","opp":"Alex Oliveira","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":11,"x":465.1,"y":93.9,"elo":1609,"date":"2019-03-16","opp":"Leon Edwards","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":12,"x":501.7,"y":112.8,"elo":1593,"date":"2019-09-28","opp":"Gilbert Burns","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":13,"x":670.5,"y":97.9,"elo":1606,"date":"2022-03-19","opp":"Takashi Sato","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":14,"x":738.6,"y":77.6,"elo":1622,"date":"2023-03-18","opp":"Bryan Barberena","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":15,"x":876,"y":100.4,"elo":1604,"date":"2025-03-22","opp":"Kevin Holland","result":"L","delta":-19}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 22, 2025 Kevin Holland L -19
Mar 18, 2023 Bryan Barberena W +17
Mar 19, 2022 Takashi Sato W +12
Sep 28, 2019 Gilbert Burns L -15
Mar 16, 2019 Leon Edwards L -16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
1.62 avg 3.66
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
61% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.81 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
49% avg 56%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.83 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
52% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
68% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.92 avg 0.43
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
5 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
80%
8 / 10
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
8
80% of wins
DEC
2
20% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 8 (80%) 8 Dec: 2 (20%) 2
Finishes by round
8 total
R1
4 50%
R2
4 50%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1578
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
8.4
actual +2 vs expected