HonestElo
← welterweight

Carlos Leal

Active #61 welterweight
Elo rating
1528 ±37
LCB 1480
Rank
#61
top 66% of division
UFC record
2-2-0
KO 1 · Sub 0 · Dec 1
Streak
+1
Δ90d +30 · Δ1y +5
Last fight
Feb 21, 2026
W by Decision

Elo history

4 fights · tap & drag
Oct 26, 2024 — L vs Rinat Fakhretdinov Δ-19Mar 8, 2025 — W vs Alex Morono Δ+41Jul 26, 2025 — L vs Muslim Salikhov Δ-24Feb 21, 2026 — W vs Chidi Njokuani Δ+30 14411473150515361568 20252026 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":168.9,"elo":1481,"date":"2024-10-26","opp":"Rinat Fakhretdinov","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":1,"x":258.6,"y":100.1,"elo":1522,"date":"2025-03-08","opp":"Alex Morono","result":"W","delta":41},{"i":2,"x":505.6,"y":141.1,"elo":1498,"date":"2025-07-26","opp":"Muslim Salikhov","result":"L","delta":-24},{"i":3,"x":876,"y":91.1,"elo":1528,"date":"2026-02-21","opp":"Chidi Njokuani","result":"W","delta":30}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 21, 2026 Chidi Njokuani W +30
Jul 26, 2025 Muslim Salikhov L -24
Mar 8, 2025 Alex Morono W +41
Oct 26, 2024 Rinat Fakhretdinov L -19

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
7.65 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
47% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
6.80 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
49% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.38 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
11% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
91% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
50%
1 / 2
Finish rate
KO
1
50% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
1
50% of wins
KO: 1 (50%) 1 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 1 (50%) 1
Finishes by round
1 total
R1
1 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1580
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
1.6
actual 0 vs expected