HonestElo
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Anthony Hernandez

Active #10 middleweight · Orthodox · 183 cm · reach 191 cm
Elo rating
1635 ±24
LCB 1604
Rank
#10
top 11% of division
UFC record
9-3-0
KO 2 · Sub 5 · Dec 2
Streak
-1
Δ90d -18 · Δ1y +1
Last fight
Feb 21, 2026
L by KO

Elo history

12 fights · tap & drag
Feb 2, 2019 — L vs Markus Perez Δ-35Aug 31, 2019 — W vs Junyong Park Δ+37May 16, 2020 — L vs Kevin Holland Δ-30Feb 13, 2021 — W vs Rodolfo Vieira Δ+42Apr 9, 2022 — W vs Josh Fremd Δ+28Sep 17, 2022 — W vs Marc-Andre Barriault Δ+16May 20, 2023 — W vs Edmen Shahbazyan Δ+19Feb 17, 2024 — W vs Roman Kopylov Δ+18Oct 19, 2024 — W vs Michel Pereira Δ+22Feb 22, 2025 — W vs Brendan Allen Δ+19Aug 9, 2025 — W vs Roman Dolidze Δ+19Feb 21, 2026 — L vs Sean Strickland Δ-18 14251492155916261693 202120232025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":204.4,"elo":1465,"date":"2019-02-02","opp":"Markus Perez","result":"L","delta":-35},{"i":1,"x":93.5,"y":175.6,"elo":1501,"date":"2019-08-31","opp":"Junyong Park","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":2,"x":179.1,"y":199.4,"elo":1471,"date":"2020-05-16","opp":"Kevin Holland","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":3,"x":269.4,"y":166.5,"elo":1513,"date":"2021-02-13","opp":"Rodolfo Vieira","result":"W","delta":42},{"i":4,"x":408.3,"y":144.5,"elo":1540,"date":"2022-04-09","opp":"Josh Fremd","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":5,"x":461.6,"y":131.6,"elo":1557,"date":"2022-09-17","opp":"Marc-Andre Barriault","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":6,"x":542.6,"y":116.7,"elo":1576,"date":"2023-05-20","opp":"Edmen Shahbazyan","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":7,"x":632.9,"y":102.5,"elo":1594,"date":"2024-02-17","opp":"Roman Kopylov","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":8,"x":713.9,"y":85,"elo":1616,"date":"2024-10-19","opp":"Michel Pereira","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":9,"x":755.6,"y":70.1,"elo":1635,"date":"2025-02-22","opp":"Brendan Allen","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":10,"x":811.2,"y":55.6,"elo":1653,"date":"2025-08-09","opp":"Roman Dolidze","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":11,"x":876,"y":69.7,"elo":1635,"date":"2026-02-21","opp":"Sean Strickland","result":"L","delta":-18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 21, 2026 Sean Strickland L -18
Aug 9, 2025 Roman Dolidze W +19
Feb 22, 2025 Brendan Allen W +19
Oct 19, 2024 Michel Pereira W +22
Feb 17, 2024 Roman Kopylov W +18

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.76 avg 3.84
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
61% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.58 avg 3.09
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
51% avg 53%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
4.91 avg 1.29
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
48% avg 45%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
68% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.36 avg 0.45
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
7 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
78%
7 / 9
Finish rate
KO
2
22% of wins
SUB
5
56% of wins
DEC
2
22% of wins
KO: 2 (22%) 2 Sub: 5 (56%) 5 Dec: 2 (22%) 2
Finishes by round
7 total
R1
R2
3 43%
R3
2 29%
R4
1 14%
R5
1 14%

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1642
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
5.7
actual +3 vs expected