HonestElo
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Kevin Holland

Active #48 welterweight · Orthodox · 191 cm · reach 206 cm
Elo rating
1576 ±41
LCB 1523
Rank
#48
top 52% of division
UFC record
15-12-0
KO 5 · Sub 6 · Dec 4
Streak
-2
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -8
Last fight
Oct 18, 2025
L by Decision

Elo history

27 fights · tap & drag
Aug 4, 2018 — L vs Thiago Santos Δ-22Nov 24, 2018 — W vs John Phillips Δ+32Mar 30, 2019 — W vs Gerald Meerschaert Δ+34Jun 22, 2019 — W vs Alessio Di Chirico Δ+28Oct 18, 2019 — L vs Brendan Allen Δ-40May 16, 2020 — W vs Anthony Hernandez Δ+17Aug 8, 2020 — W vs Joaquin Buckley Δ+16Sep 19, 2020 — W vs Darren Stewart Δ+14Oct 31, 2020 — W vs Charlie Ontiveros Δ+14Dec 12, 2020 — W vs Jacare Souza Δ+21Mar 20, 2021 — L vs Derek Brunson Δ-14Apr 10, 2021 — L vs Marvin Vettori Δ-17Mar 5, 2022 — W vs Alex Oliveira Δ+16Jun 18, 2022 — W vs Tim Means Δ+17Sep 10, 2022 — L vs Khamzat Chimaev Δ-16Dec 3, 2022 — L vs Stephen Thompson Δ-17Apr 8, 2023 — W vs Santiago Ponzinibbio Δ+20Jul 29, 2023 — W vs Michael Chiesa Δ+20Sep 16, 2023 — L vs Jack Della Maddalena Δ-15Mar 9, 2024 — L vs Michael Page Δ-21Jun 1, 2024 — W vs Michal Oleksiejczuk Δ+17Oct 5, 2024 — L vs Roman Dolidze Δ-18Jan 18, 2025 — L vs Reinier De Ridder Δ-21Mar 22, 2025 — W vs Gunnar Nelson Δ+19Jun 7, 2025 — W vs Vicente Luque Δ+23Jul 19, 2025 — L vs Daniel Rodriguez Δ-15Oct 18, 2025 — L vs Mike Malott Δ-15 14381494155116071663 202020222024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":198.2,"elo":1478,"date":"2018-08-04","opp":"Thiago Santos","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":1,"x":60.3,"y":167.9,"elo":1510,"date":"2018-11-24","opp":"John Phillips","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":2,"x":101,"y":135.9,"elo":1544,"date":"2019-03-30","opp":"Gerald Meerschaert","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":3,"x":128.2,"y":109.7,"elo":1572,"date":"2019-06-22","opp":"Alessio Di Chirico","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":4,"x":166.4,"y":147.4,"elo":1532,"date":"2019-10-18","opp":"Brendan Allen","result":"L","delta":-40},{"i":5,"x":234.7,"y":131.5,"elo":1549,"date":"2020-05-16","opp":"Anthony Hernandez","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":6,"x":261.9,"y":116.6,"elo":1565,"date":"2020-08-08","opp":"Joaquin Buckley","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":7,"x":275.5,"y":103,"elo":1579,"date":"2020-09-19","opp":"Darren Stewart","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":8,"x":289.1,"y":89.5,"elo":1593,"date":"2020-10-31","opp":"Charlie Ontiveros","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":9,"x":302.7,"y":69.7,"elo":1614,"date":"2020-12-12","opp":"Jacare Souza","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":10,"x":334.4,"y":83.1,"elo":1600,"date":"2021-03-20","opp":"Derek Brunson","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":11,"x":341.2,"y":99.2,"elo":1583,"date":"2021-04-10","opp":"Marvin Vettori","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":12,"x":447.7,"y":84.3,"elo":1599,"date":"2022-03-05","opp":"Alex Oliveira","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":13,"x":481.7,"y":67.9,"elo":1616,"date":"2022-06-18","opp":"Tim Means","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":14,"x":508.9,"y":83.2,"elo":1600,"date":"2022-09-10","opp":"Khamzat Chimaev","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":15,"x":536.1,"y":99.6,"elo":1583,"date":"2022-12-03","opp":"Stephen Thompson","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":16,"x":576.9,"y":80.3,"elo":1603,"date":"2023-04-08","opp":"Santiago Ponzinibbio","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":17,"x":613.1,"y":61.8,"elo":1623,"date":"2023-07-29","opp":"Michael Chiesa","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":18,"x":629,"y":75.5,"elo":1608,"date":"2023-09-16","opp":"Jack Della Maddalena","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":19,"x":685.7,"y":95.1,"elo":1587,"date":"2024-03-09","opp":"Michael Page","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":20,"x":712.9,"y":79.6,"elo":1604,"date":"2024-06-01","opp":"Michal Oleksiejczuk","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":21,"x":753.6,"y":97,"elo":1585,"date":"2024-10-05","opp":"Roman Dolidze","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":22,"x":787.6,"y":116.7,"elo":1565,"date":"2025-01-18","opp":"Reinier De Ridder","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":23,"x":808,"y":99,"elo":1583,"date":"2025-03-22","opp":"Gunnar Nelson","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":24,"x":832.9,"y":77.2,"elo":1606,"date":"2025-06-07","opp":"Vicente Luque","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":25,"x":846.5,"y":91.9,"elo":1591,"date":"2025-07-19","opp":"Daniel Rodriguez","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":26,"x":876,"y":106.3,"elo":1576,"date":"2025-10-18","opp":"Mike Malott","result":"L","delta":-15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Oct 18, 2025 Mike Malott L -15
Jul 19, 2025 Daniel Rodriguez L -15
Jun 7, 2025 Vicente Luque W +23
Mar 22, 2025 Gunnar Nelson W +19
Jan 18, 2025 Reinier De Ridder L -21

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.72 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
50% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.92 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
50% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.77 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
43% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
55% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.50 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
73%
11 / 15
Finish rate
KO
5
33% of wins
SUB
6
40% of wins
DEC
4
27% of wins
KO: 5 (33%) 5 Sub: 6 (40%) 6 Dec: 4 (27%) 4
Finishes by round
11 total
R1
5 45%
R2
3 27%
R3
3 27%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1613
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
13.5
actual +2 vs expected