HonestElo
← welterweight

Tim Means "The Dirty Bird"

Active #58 welterweight · age 42 · Orthodox · 6'2" 188 cm · 170 lb 77 kg · reach 75" 191 cm
At a glance
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • 53% of wins by KO or submission
  • UFC veteran since 2012
Elo rating
1459
Global Elo 1509 ±38
Rank
#58
top 77% of division
UFC record
15-14-0
KO 6 · Sub 2 · Dec 7
Streak
-2
Δ90d +6 · Δ1y +6
Last fight
Oct 5, 2024
Loss by Submission · R1
Career at a glance
Octagon time
4h 45m
Avg fight time
9:51
Bonuses
7
Fights per year
2.3
Since last fight
1y 9mo

Honest Elo history

29 fights · tap & drag
Feb 15, 2012 — W vs Bernardo Magalhaes Δ+29Jun 8, 2012 — W vs Justin Salas Δ+33Apr 20, 2013 — L vs Jorge Masvidal Δ-34Jul 27, 2013 — L vs Danny Castillo Δ-24May 10, 2014 — L vs Neil Magny Δ-29Jul 26, 2014 — W vs Hernani Perpetuo Δ+16Dec 20, 2014 — W vs Marcio Alexandre Junior Δ+15Feb 28, 2015 — W vs Dhiego Lima Δ+18Apr 18, 2015 — W vs George Sullivan Δ+21Jul 11, 2015 — L vs Matt Brown Δ-15Dec 10, 2015 — W vs John Howard Δ+19Aug 20, 2016 — W vs Sabah Homasi Δ+16Mar 11, 2017 — L vs Alex Oliveira Δ-18Jun 25, 2017 — W vs Alex Garcia Δ+16Nov 18, 2017 — L vs Belal Muhammad Δ-17Feb 3, 2018 — L vs Sergio Moraes Δ-13Nov 30, 2018 — W vs Ricky Rainey Δ+15Mar 9, 2019 — L vs Niko Price Δ-17Dec 7, 2019 — W vs Thiago Alves Δ+20Feb 15, 2020 — L vs Daniel Rodriguez Δ-21Aug 8, 2020 — W vs Laureano Staropoli Δ+16Nov 21, 2020 — W vs Mike Perry Δ+17Jun 26, 2021 — W vs Nicolas Dalby Δ+15Jun 18, 2022 — L vs Kevin Holland Δ-17Oct 29, 2022 — L vs Max Griffin Δ-18May 13, 2023 — L vs Alex Morono Δ-16Sep 23, 2023 — W vs Andre Fialho Δ+16Apr 27, 2024 — L vs Uros Medic Δ-19Oct 5, 2024 — L vs Court McGee Δ-21 14001425145014751500152515501575 201420162018202020222024 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":253.5,"elo":1486,"date":"2012-02-15","opp":"Bernardo Magalhaes","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":1,"x":107.8,"y":192.9,"elo":1519,"date":"2012-06-08","opp":"Justin Salas","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":2,"x":157.1,"y":254.9,"elo":1485,"date":"2013-04-20","opp":"Jorge Masvidal","result":"L","delta":-34},{"i":3,"x":172.4,"y":298.8,"elo":1461,"date":"2013-07-27","opp":"Danny Castillo","result":"L","delta":-24},{"i":4,"x":217.1,"y":352,"elo":1432,"date":"2014-05-10","opp":"Neil Magny","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":5,"x":229.1,"y":323,"elo":1448,"date":"2014-07-26","opp":"Hernani Perpetuo","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":6,"x":252.1,"y":296.4,"elo":1462,"date":"2014-12-20","opp":"Marcio Alexandre Junior","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":7,"x":263,"y":264.1,"elo":1480,"date":"2015-02-28","opp":"Dhiego Lima","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":8,"x":270.6,"y":226.4,"elo":1500,"date":"2015-04-18","opp":"George Sullivan","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":9,"x":283.7,"y":253.8,"elo":1485,"date":"2015-07-11","opp":"Matt Brown","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":10,"x":307.4,"y":219.8,"elo":1504,"date":"2015-12-10","opp":"John Howard","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":11,"x":347.1,"y":190.8,"elo":1520,"date":"2016-08-20","opp":"Sabah Homasi","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":12,"x":378.7,"y":222.8,"elo":1502,"date":"2017-03-11","opp":"Alex Oliveira","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":13,"x":395.3,"y":192.9,"elo":1519,"date":"2017-06-25","opp":"Alex Garcia","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":14,"x":418,"y":223.3,"elo":1502,"date":"2017-11-18","opp":"Belal Muhammad","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":15,"x":430,"y":248,"elo":1489,"date":"2018-02-03","opp":"Sergio Moraes","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":16,"x":476.8,"y":220.7,"elo":1504,"date":"2018-11-30","opp":"Ricky Rainey","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":17,"x":492.3,"y":251.5,"elo":1487,"date":"2019-03-09","opp":"Niko Price","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":18,"x":534.9,"y":214.7,"elo":1507,"date":"2019-12-07","opp":"Thiago Alves","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":19,"x":545.8,"y":253.3,"elo":1486,"date":"2020-02-15","opp":"Daniel Rodriguez","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":20,"x":573.1,"y":223.9,"elo":1502,"date":"2020-08-08","opp":"Laureano Staropoli","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":21,"x":589.4,"y":192,"elo":1519,"date":"2020-11-21","opp":"Mike Perry","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":22,"x":623.3,"y":165.5,"elo":1534,"date":"2021-06-26","opp":"Nicolas Dalby","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":23,"x":679,"y":197,"elo":1517,"date":"2022-06-18","opp":"Kevin Holland","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":24,"x":699.7,"y":229.2,"elo":1499,"date":"2022-10-29","opp":"Max Griffin","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":25,"x":730.3,"y":258,"elo":1483,"date":"2023-05-13","opp":"Alex Morono","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":26,"x":751,"y":229,"elo":1499,"date":"2023-09-23","opp":"Andre Fialho","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":27,"x":784.9,"y":263.7,"elo":1480,"date":"2024-04-27","opp":"Uros Medic","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":28,"x":810,"y":301.7,"elo":1459,"date":"2024-10-05","opp":"Court McGee","result":"L","delta":-21}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Oct 5, 2024 Court McGee L -21
Apr 27, 2024 Uros Medic L -19
Sep 23, 2023 Andre Fialho W +16
May 13, 2023 Alex Morono L -16
Oct 29, 2022 Max Griffin L -18

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
53%
8 / 15
Finish rate
KO
6
40% of wins
SUB
2
13% of wins
DEC
7
47% of wins
KO: 6 (40%) 6 Sub: 2 (13%) 2 Dec: 7 (47%) 7
Finishes by round
8 total
R1
4 50%
R2
2 25%
R3
2 25%
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1440 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
61% Head
  • Head 61%
  • Body 28%
  • Leg 11%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
77% Distance
  • Distance 77%
  • Clinch 14%
  • Ground 9%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
57%
of losses by finish
8 of 14 · usually R1
2 KO/TKO 6 Sub 6 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1521
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 15 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Mike Perry
Elo 1576 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
14.6
+0.4 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 29 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1500
1479

Top welterweight

See full rankings →
Islam Makhachev C
#1 · Elo 1802
Kamaru Usman
#2 · Elo 1691
Shavkat Rakhmonov
#3 · Elo 1679
Michael Morales
#4 · Elo 1671
Ian Machado Garry
#5 · Elo 1669
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Tim Means on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.