HonestElo
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Michael Page

Active #23 welterweight · 188 cm
Elo rating
1620 ±32
LCB 1578
Rank
#23
top 24% of division
UFC record
4-1-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 4
Streak
+3
Δ90d +30 · Δ1y +63
Last fight
Mar 21, 2026
W by Decision

Elo history

5 fights · tap & drag
Mar 9, 2024 — W vs Kevin Holland Δ+38Jun 29, 2024 — L vs Ian Machado Garry Δ-18Feb 1, 2025 — W vs Shara Magomedov Δ+37Aug 16, 2025 — W vs Jared Cannonier Δ+34Mar 21, 2026 — W vs Sam Patterson Δ+30 14801525157016151660 20252026 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":167.8,"elo":1538,"date":"2024-03-09","opp":"Kevin Holland","result":"W","delta":38},{"i":1,"x":152.6,"y":188.9,"elo":1520,"date":"2024-06-29","opp":"Ian Machado Garry","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":2,"x":401.8,"y":145.7,"elo":1556,"date":"2025-02-01","opp":"Shara Magomedov","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":3,"x":626.8,"y":105.7,"elo":1590,"date":"2025-08-16","opp":"Jared Cannonier","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":4,"x":876,"y":71.1,"elo":1620,"date":"2026-03-21","opp":"Sam Patterson","result":"W","delta":30}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 21, 2026 Sam Patterson W +30
Aug 16, 2025 Jared Cannonier W +34
Feb 1, 2025 Shara Magomedov W +37
Jun 29, 2024 Ian Machado Garry L -18
Mar 9, 2024 Kevin Holland W +38

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.15 avg 3.64
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
56% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
1.57 avg 2.88
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
62% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.00 avg 1.86
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
0% avg 44%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
68% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.46
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 4
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 4
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
4
100% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 4 (100%) 4

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1624
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
1.9
actual +2 vs expected