HonestElo
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✓ Justin Gaethje won · by TKO · R4
lightweight
Other bouts 6
Fight Card
UFC Freedom 250
Jun 14, 2026 · Washington, DC, USA
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Corner A
Ilia Topuria
#1 9-1-0
Elo 1686
VS
Corner B
C Justin Gaethje
#4 11-5-0
Elo 1670
Final result · recorded Jun 15, 2026
Justin Gaethje
defeated Ilia Topuria by TKO in round 4

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Ilia Topuria 74.2% · Justin Gaethje 25.8%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Ilia Topuria 60.2% · Justin Gaethje 39.8%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 6
Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane heavyweight Sean O'Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi bantamweight Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler lightweight Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus middleweight Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia featherweight Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis heavyweight

Tale of the tape

9-1-0 UFC record 11-5-0
KO 6 · Sub 1 Finishes KO 7 · Sub 0
-1 Streak +3
29 Age 37
5'7" 170 cm Height 5'11" 180 cm
69" 175 cm Reach 70" 178 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1727 Global Elo 1710
1686 Elo rating 1670
Ilia Topuria — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 2 successful title defenses
  • Fight of the Night in last fight
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • 78% of wins by KO or submission
Justin Gaethje — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 3-fight UFC win streak
  • 2 successful title defenses
  • Fight of the Night in last fight
  • Earned a bonus in 4 of last 5 fights

Ilia Topuria — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 502 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
68% Head
  • Head 68%
  • Body 21%
  • Leg 11%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
77% Distance
  • Distance 77%
  • Clinch 7%
  • Ground 16%

Justin Gaethje — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1271 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
66% Head
  • Head 66%
  • Body 11%
  • Leg 23%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
84% Distance
  • Distance 84%
  • Clinch 13%
  • Ground 3%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.82
6.29
div avg 4.65
50%
58%
div avg 51%
3.97
6.83
div avg 3.84
62%
51%
div avg 54%
1.73
0.30
div avg 1.84
57%
27%
div avg 38%
95%
73%
div avg 72%
0.86
0.00
div avg 0.62
3
1
div avg 4

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Ilia Topuria
78% finish rate
KO 6 · Sub 1
can finish?
Justin Gaethje
finished 100%
5 of 5 losses
Justin Gaethje
64% finish rate
KO 7 · Sub 0
can finish?
Ilia Topuria
finished 100%
1 of 1 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1710 (Ilia Topuria) vs 1700 (Justin Gaethje).

Ilia Topuria red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1710
Elite slate
Quality wins (1600+)
6
of 9 UFC wins
Toughest win
Max Holloway
Elo 1751 at fight time
Expected wins
4.9
+4.1 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 10 fights
1579
1682
Notable wins
Max Holloway 1751 Alexander Volkanovski 1750 Charles Oliveira 1731 Bryce Mitchell 1646 Josh Emmett 1637
Justin Gaethje blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1700
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
9
of 11 UFC wins
Toughest win
Ilia Topuria
Elo 1754 at fight time
Expected wins
6.4
+4.6 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 16 fights
1575
1754
Notable wins
Ilia Topuria 1754 Tony Ferguson 1751 Dustin Poirier 1728 Donald Cerrone 1690 James Vick 1681

Common opponents

2 shared opponents · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

Corner A recent form
Ilia Topuria
Corner B recent form
Justin Gaethje
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Ilia Topuria & Justin Gaethje on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.