Other bouts 6
- 2heavyweightAlex PereiravsCiryl Gane
- 3bantamweightSean O'MalleyvsAiemann Zahabi
- 4lightweightMauricio RuffyvsMichael Chandler
- 5middleweightBo NickalvsKyle Daukaus
- 6featherweightDiego LopesvsSteve Garcia
- 7heavyweightJosh HokitvsDerrick Lewis
Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Ilia Topuria 74.2% · Justin Gaethje 25.8%
Pure Elo pre-fight: Ilia Topuria 60.2% · Justin Gaethje 39.8%
The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.
Independent UFC analytics
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Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.
Notable
Finishes 78% of wins (6 KO · 1 SUB).
7 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.
17 career post-fight bonuses — a perennial bonus magnet.
Title-fight record 3–1.
Title-fight record 3–1.
Tale of the tape
| 9-1-0 | UFC record | 11-5-0 |
| KO 6 · Sub 1 | Finishes | KO 7 · Sub 0 |
| -1 | Streak | +3 |
| 29 | Age | 37 |
| 5'7" 170 cm | Height | 5'11" 180 cm |
| 69" 175 cm | Reach | 70" 178 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 1727 | Global Elo | 1710 |
| 1686 | Elo rating | 1670 |
Ilia Topuria — Notable ▼
- 2 successful title defenses
- Fight of the Night in last fight
- Earned a bonus in 5 of last 5 fights
- 78% of wins by KO or submission
Justin Gaethje — Notable ▼
- 3-fight UFC win streak
- 2 successful title defenses
- Fight of the Night in last fight
- Earned a bonus in 5 of last 5 fights
Ilia Topuria — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 502 landed total · career
- Head 68%
- Body 21%
- Leg 11%
- Distance 77%
- Clinch 7%
- Ground 16%
Justin Gaethje — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1271 landed total · career
- Head 66%
- Body 11%
- Leg 23%
- Distance 84%
- Clinch 13%
- Ground 3%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Terrance McKinney7.95
- 2Esteban Ribovics7.41
- 3Gauge Young7.00
- 4Billy Quarantillo6.80
- 5King Green6.59
- 1Benoit Saint Denis58%
- 2Marquel Mederos58%
- 3Quillan Salkilld58%
- 4Justin Gaethje58%
- 5Anshul Jubli57%
- 1Fares Ziam1.58
- 2Kaue Fernandes1.63
- 3Nurullo Aliev1.67
- 4Arman Tsarukyan1.80
- 5Joe Solecki1.90
- 1Matheus Camilo67%
- 2Fares Ziam64%
- 3Nasrat Haqparast63%
- 4Ilia Topuria62%
- 5King Green62%
- 1Quillan Salkilld5.74
- 2Mateusz Gamrot5.08
- 3Matheus Camilo4.16
- 4Benoit Saint Denis4.15
- 5Grant Dawson3.62
- 1Kaue Fernandes100%
- 2Rafael Fiziev71%
- 3Manuel Torres67%
- 4Esteban Ribovics67%
- 5Rongzhu63%
- 1Trey Ogden100%
- 2Ottman Azaitar100%
- 3Anshul Jubli100%
- 4Ilia Topuria95%
- 5Gauge Young92%
- 1Charles Oliveira2.59
- 2Terrance McKinney2.18
- 3Chase Hooper2.05
- 4Benoit Saint Denis1.73
- 5Jim Miller1.72
- 1Grant Dawson9.76
- 2Nurullo Aliev8.80
- 3Benoit Saint Denis7.08
- 4Terrance McKinney6.77
- 5Claudio Puelles6.69
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1711 (Ilia Topuria) vs 1700 (Justin Gaethje).
Common opponents
2 shared opponents · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.
- Jun 14, 2026
- Jun 28, 2025
- Oct 26, 2024
- Feb 17, 2024
- Jun 24, 2023
- Jun 14, 2026
- Jan 24, 2026
- Mar 8, 2025
- Apr 13, 2024
- Jul 29, 2023