HonestElo
← Back to event card
✓ Diego Lopes won · by KO · R2
featherweight
Other bouts 6
Fight Card
UFC Freedom 250
Jun 14, 2026 · Washington, DC, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Diego Lopes
#8 7-3-0
Elo 1613
VS
Corner B
Steve Garcia
#16 8-3-0
Elo 1579
Final result · recorded Jun 15, 2026
Diego Lopes
defeated Steve Garcia by KO in round 2

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Diego Lopes 64.5% · Steve Garcia 35.5%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Diego Lopes 56.7% · Steve Garcia 43.3%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

Independent UFC analytics

Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.

Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.

Follow @HonestElo Next card →
Other fights on this card · 6
Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje Main event · lightweight Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane heavyweight Sean O'Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi bantamweight Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler lightweight Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus middleweight Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis heavyweight

Tale of the tape

7-3-0 UFC record 8-3-0
KO 4 · Sub 1 Finishes KO 7 · Sub 0
+1 Streak -1
31 Age 34
5'11" 180 cm Height 6'0" 183 cm
72" 183 cm Reach 75" 191 cm
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
1655 Global Elo 1608
1613 Elo rating 1579
Diego Lopes — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • Has never been finished — durability signal
  • 71% of wins by KO or submission
  • 43% of wins finished in round 1
Steve Garcia — Notable ▼
At a glance

Diego Lopes — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 462 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
72% Head
  • Head 72%
  • Body 12%
  • Leg 16%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
69% Distance
  • Distance 69%
  • Clinch 7%
  • Ground 23%

Steve Garcia — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 339 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
75% Head
  • Head 75%
  • Body 15%
  • Leg 10%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
69% Distance
  • Distance 69%
  • Clinch 4%
  • Ground 27%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

3.94
4.98
div avg 4.31
47%
47%
div avg 48%
4.68
2.01
div avg 3.46
47%
63%
div avg 56%
0.90
0.88
div avg 1.56
47%
57%
div avg 41%
74%
80%
div avg 65%
1.02
0.44
div avg 0.48
2
2
div avg 3

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Diego Lopes
71% finish rate
KO 4 · Sub 1
can finish?
Steve Garcia
finished 67%
2 of 3 losses
Steve Garcia
88% finish rate
KO 7 · Sub 0
can finish?
Diego Lopes
finished 0%
never finished

Strength of schedule in UFC

Diego Lopes has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1683 vs 1558, 5 quality wins to 0.

Diego Lopes red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1683
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
5
of 7 UFC wins
Toughest win
Brian Ortega
Elo 1672 at fight time
Expected wins
4.2
+2.8 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 10 fights
1660
1626
Notable wins
Brian Ortega 1672 Jean Silva 1657 Steve Garcia 1626 Dan Ige 1613 Sodiq Yusuff 1606
Steve Garcia blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1558
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 8 UFC wins
Toughest win
David Onama
Elo 1590 at fight time
Expected wins
5.7
+2.4 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 11 fights
1538
1637
Corner A recent form
Diego Lopes
Corner B recent form
Steve Garcia
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Diego Lopes & Steve Garcia on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.