Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia — Honest Elo matchup
Other bouts 6
- 1lightweight Main TitleIlia TopuriavsJustin Gaethje
- 2heavyweight TitleAlex PereiravsCiryl Gane
- 3bantamweightSean O'MalleyvsAiemann Zahabi
- 4lightweightMauricio RuffyvsMichael Chandler
- 5middleweightBo NickalvsKyle Daukaus
- 7heavyweightJosh HokitvsDerrick Lewis
Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Diego Lopes 64.5% · Steve Garcia 35.5%
Pure Elo pre-fight: Diego Lopes 56.7% · Steve Garcia 43.3%
The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.
Independent UFC analytics
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Other fights on this card · 6
Notable
Has never been finished — all 3 losses went to the scorecards.
Finishes 71% of wins (4 KO · 1 SUB; 43% of wins end in round 1).
Finishes 88% of wins (7 KO; 50% of wins end in round 1).
7 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.
Tale of the tape
| 7-3-0 | UFC record | 8-3-0 |
| KO 4 · Sub 1 | Finishes | KO 7 · Sub 0 |
| +1 | Streak | -1 |
| 31 | Age | 34 |
| 5'11" 180 cm | Height | 6'0" 183 cm |
| 72" 183 cm | Reach | 75" 191 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Southpaw |
| 1655 | Global Elo | 1608 |
| 1613 | Elo rating | 1579 |
Diego Lopes — Notable ▼
- Has never been finished — durability signal
- Earned a bonus in 3 of last 5 fights
- 71% of wins by KO or submission
- 43% of wins finished in round 1
Steve Garcia — Notable ▼
- Earned a bonus in 3 of last 5 fights
- 88% of wins by KO/TKO
- Top 5 · featherweightKnockdowns per 15 Minutes
- 1Kevin Vallejos2.13
- 2Tommy Mcmillen1.85
- 3Steve Garcia1.76
- 4Luke Riley1.27
- 5Jean Silva1.23
- 50% of wins finished in round 1
Diego Lopes — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 462 landed total · career
- Head 72%
- Body 12%
- Leg 16%
- Distance 69%
- Clinch 7%
- Ground 23%
Steve Garcia — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 339 landed total · career
- Head 75%
- Body 15%
- Leg 10%
- Distance 69%
- Clinch 4%
- Ground 27%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Tommy Mcmillen12.80
- 2Hyder Amil7.28
- 3Marwan Rahiki6.87
- 4Luke Riley6.67
- 5Michael Aswell Jr.6.22
- 1Erik Silva67%
- 2Isaac Dulgarian64%
- 3Gabriel Santos61%
- 4Bogdan Grad59%
- 5Luke Riley59%
- 1Yadier Del Valle0.90
- 2Pat Sabatini1.16
- 3Jordan Leavitt1.63
- 4Isaac Dulgarian1.65
- 5Erik Silva1.66
- 1Felipe Lima68%
- 2Miles Johns67%
- 3Mairon Santos66%
- 4Yadier Del Valle66%
- 5Youssef Zalal65%
- 1Bogdan Grad5.33
- 2Movsar Evloev4.78
- 3Gabriel Miranda4.75
- 4Isaac Dulgarian4.57
- 5Pat Sabatini4.27
- 1Tommy Mcmillen100%
- 2Yadier Del Valle100%
- 3Gaston Bolanos75%
- 4Erik Silva75%
- 5Jean Silva67%
- 1Fernando Padilla100%
- 2Jose Aldo92%
- 3Kevin Vallejos90%
- 4Felipe Lima90%
- 5Sean Woodson88%
- 1Westin Wilson7.87
- 2Yadier Del Valle2.71
- 3Gabriel Miranda1.90
- 4Isaac Dulgarian1.83
- 5Daniel Pineda1.54
- 1Pat Sabatini10.65
- 2Isaac Dulgarian10.58
- 3Bogdan Grad6.76
- 4Jordan Leavitt5.97
- 5Darren Elkins5.51
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Diego Lopes has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1683 vs 1559, 5 quality wins to 0.
- Jun 14, 2026
- Jan 31, 2026
- Sep 13, 2025
- Apr 12, 2025
- Sep 14, 2024
- Jun 14, 2026
- Nov 1, 2025
- Jul 12, 2025
- Sep 7, 2024
- Jul 20, 2024