Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler — Honest Elo matchup
Other bouts 6
- 1lightweight Main TitleIlia TopuriavsJustin Gaethje
- 2heavyweight TitleAlex PereiravsCiryl Gane
- 3bantamweightSean O'MalleyvsAiemann Zahabi
- 5middleweightBo NickalvsKyle Daukaus
- 6featherweightDiego LopesvsSteve Garcia
- 7heavyweightJosh HokitvsDerrick Lewis
Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Mauricio Ruffy 80.0% · Michael Chandler 20.0%
Pure Elo pre-fight: Mauricio Ruffy 61.9% · Michael Chandler 38.1%
The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.
Independent UFC analytics
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Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.
Other fights on this card · 6
Notable
5 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.
Both enter off a loss (Sep 2026 / Jun 2026).
Tale of the tape
| 5-2-0 | UFC record | 2-6-0 |
| KO 4 · Sub 0 | Finishes | KO 2 · Sub 0 |
| -1 | Streak | -4 |
| 30 | Age | 40 |
| 5'11" 180 cm | Height | 5'8" 173 cm |
| 75" 191 cm | Reach | 71" 180 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 1597 | Global Elo | 1497 |
| 1556 | Elo rating | 1454 |
Mauricio Ruffy — Notable ▼
- Top 5 · lightweightKnockdowns per 15 Minutes
- 1Manuel Torres2.93
- 2Mauricio Ruffy1.85
- 3Jalin Turner1.58
- 4Quillan Salkilld1.57
- 5Kaue Fernandes1.55
- Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
- 80% of wins by KO/TKO
- 60% of wins finished in round 1
Michael Chandler — Notable ▼
- 4-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
- Earned a bonus in 3 of last 5 fights
- 100% of wins by KO/TKO
- 50% of wins finished in round 1
Mauricio Ruffy — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 179 landed total · career
- Head 82%
- Body 7%
- Leg 11%
- Distance 83%
- Clinch 4%
- Ground 13%
Michael Chandler — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 318 landed total · career
- Head 67%
- Body 23%
- Leg 10%
- Distance 74%
- Clinch 2%
- Ground 24%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Terrance McKinney7.95
- 2Gauge Young7.53
- 3Esteban Ribovics7.46
- 4Billy Quarantillo6.80
- 5Chris Padilla6.67
- 1Marquel Mederos60%
- 2Benoit Saint Denis58%
- 3Quillan Salkilld58%
- 4Justin Gaethje58%
- 5Anshul Jubli57%
- 1Kaue Fernandes1.63
- 2Fares Ziam1.63
- 3Nurullo Aliev1.67
- 4Arman Tsarukyan1.77
- 5Joe Solecki1.90
- 1Matheus Camilo66%
- 2Fares Ziam63%
- 3Ilia Topuria62%
- 4Nasrat Haqparast62%
- 5King Green61%
- 1Quillan Salkilld5.74
- 2Mateusz Gamrot5.08
- 3Benoit Saint Denis4.15
- 4Grant Dawson3.62
- 5Nurullo Aliev3.50
- 1Kaue Fernandes100%
- 2Rafael Fiziev71%
- 3Manuel Torres67%
- 4Esteban Ribovics67%
- 5Rongzhu63%
- 1Trey Ogden100%
- 2Matheus Camilo100%
- 3Ottman Azaitar100%
- 4Anshul Jubli100%
- 5Ilia Topuria95%
- 1Charles Oliveira2.59
- 2Terrance McKinney2.18
- 3Chase Hooper2.05
- 4Benoit Saint Denis1.73
- 5Jim Miller1.72
- 1Grant Dawson9.76
- 2Nurullo Aliev8.80
- 3Benoit Saint Denis7.08
- 4Terrance McKinney6.77
- 5Claudio Puelles6.69
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Michael Chandler has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1677 vs 1600, 2 quality wins to 1.
- Sep 19, 2026
- Jun 14, 2026
- Jan 31, 2026
- Sep 6, 2025
- Mar 8, 2025
- Jun 14, 2026
- Apr 12, 2025
- Nov 16, 2024
- Nov 12, 2022
- May 7, 2022