HonestElo
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✓ Mauricio Ruffy won · by TKO · R1
lightweight
Other bouts 6
Fight Card
UFC Freedom 250
Jun 14, 2026 · Washington, DC, USA
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Corner A
Mauricio Ruffy
#17 5-1-0
Elo 1573
VS
Corner B
Michael Chandler
#64 2-6-0
Elo 1454
Final result · recorded Jun 15, 2026
Mauricio Ruffy
defeated Michael Chandler by TKO in round 1

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Mauricio Ruffy 80.0% · Michael Chandler 20.0%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Mauricio Ruffy 61.9% · Michael Chandler 38.1%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 6
Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje Main event · lightweight Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane heavyweight Sean O'Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi bantamweight Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus middleweight Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia featherweight Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis heavyweight

Tale of the tape

5-1-0 UFC record 2-6-0
KO 4 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 2 · Sub 0
+2 Streak -4
30 Age 40
5'11" 180 cm Height 5'8" 173 cm
75" 191 cm Reach 71" 180 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1611 Global Elo 1498
1573 Elo rating 1454
Mauricio Ruffy — Notable ▼
At a glance
Michael Chandler — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 4-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • Earned a bonus in 4 of last 5 fights
  • 100% of wins by KO/TKO
  • 50% of wins finished in round 1

Mauricio Ruffy — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 175 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
82% Head
  • Head 82%
  • Body 7%
  • Leg 11%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
84% Distance
  • Distance 84%
  • Clinch 3%
  • Ground 13%

Michael Chandler — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 318 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
67% Head
  • Head 67%
  • Body 23%
  • Leg 10%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
74% Distance
  • Distance 74%
  • Clinch 2%
  • Ground 24%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.00
3.85
div avg 4.65
57%
50%
div avg 51%
3.75
4.75
div avg 3.84
60%
41%
div avg 54%
0.00
1.63
div avg 1.84
0%
36%
div avg 38%
85%
56%
div avg 72%
0.00
0.18
div avg 0.62
1
3
div avg 4

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Mauricio Ruffy
80% finish rate
KO 4 · Sub 0
can finish?
Michael Chandler
finished 67%
4 of 6 losses
Michael Chandler
100% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 0
can finish?
Mauricio Ruffy
finished 100%
1 of 1 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Michael Chandler has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1677 vs 1549, 2 quality wins to 1.

Mauricio Ruffy red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1549
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
1
of 5 UFC wins
Toughest win
Rafael Fiziev
Elo 1606 at fight time
Expected wins
3.1
+1.9 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 6 fights
1508
1512
Notable wins
Rafael Fiziev 1606
Michael Chandler blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1677
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
2
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win
Tony Ferguson
Elo 1685 at fight time
Expected wins
2.4
−0.4 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 8 fights
1620
1597
Notable wins
Tony Ferguson 1685 Dan Hooker 1620
Corner A recent form
Mauricio Ruffy
Corner B recent form
Michael Chandler
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Mauricio Ruffy & Michael Chandler on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.