HonestElo
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lightweight
Other bouts 8
Fight Card
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Oct 24, 2026 · Abu Dhabi, UAE
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Corner A
Grant Dawson
#6 12-2-1
Elo 1642
VS
Corner B
Nurullo Aliev
#12 4-0-0
Elo 1587

Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Corner A Grant Dawson 50.0%
Corner B Nurullo Aliev 50.0%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

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Other fights on this card · 8
Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev Main event · featherweight Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili bantamweight Lone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov flyweight Arnold Allen vs Aaron Pico featherweight Dominick Reyes vs Azamat Murzakanov light heavyweight Abus Magomedov vs Cam Rowston middleweight Nikita Krylov vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev light heavyweight Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev heavyweight

Tale of the tape

12-2-1 UFC record 4-0-0
KO 2 · Sub 5 Finishes KO 0 · Sub 0
+1 Streak +4
32 Age 25
5'10" 178 cm Height 5'10" 178 cm
72" 183 cm Reach 72" 183 cm
Switch Stance Orthodox
1689 Global Elo 1613
1642 Elo rating 1587
Grant Dawson — Notable ▼
At a glance
Nurullo Aliev — Notable ▼
At a glance

Grant Dawson — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 528 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
69% Head
  • Head 69%
  • Body 19%
  • Leg 13%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
50% Distance
  • Distance 50%
  • Clinch 10%
  • Ground 40%

Nurullo Aliev — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 118 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
82% Head
  • Head 82%
  • Body 14%
  • Leg 4%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
63% Distance
  • Distance 63%
  • Clinch 8%
  • Ground 30%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

3.11
1.97
div avg 4.53
51%
42%
div avg 51%
2.20
1.67
div avg 3.76
45%
56%
div avg 53%
3.62
3.50
div avg 1.86
39%
58%
div avg 37%
70%
80%
div avg 72%
1.24
0.50
div avg 0.65
10
9
div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Grant Dawson
58% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 5
can finish?
Nurullo Aliev
finished —
no losses
Nurullo Aliev
0% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 0
can finish?
Grant Dawson
finished 100%
2 of 2 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Grant Dawson has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1573 vs 1536, 4 quality wins to 0.

Grant Dawson red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1573
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
4
of 12 UFC wins
Toughest win
Leonardo Santos
Elo 1666 at fight time
Expected wins
8.9
+3.0 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 15 fights
1460
1558
Notable wins
Leonardo Santos 1666 Mark Madsen 1616 Diego Ferreira 1611 Damir Ismagulov 1608
Nurullo Aliev blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1536
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win
Mike Davis
Elo 1588 at fight time
Expected wins
2.0
+2.0 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 4 fights
1487
1588

Common opponents

1 shared opponent · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

  • W
    Joe Solecki
    W
    Decision - Unanimous
    Decision - Unanimous
    Jun 1, 2024
    Jan 11, 2025
Corner A recent form
Grant Dawson
Corner B recent form
Nurullo Aliev
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Grant Dawson & Nurullo Aliev on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.