← Back to event card

Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Notable

Reyes

Finishes 70% of wins (6 KO · 1 SUB; 60% of wins end in round 1).

Murzakanov

Finishes 83% of wins (5 KO).

Reyes

Reach advantage of ~6".

Tale of the tape

10-5-0 UFC record 6-1-0
KO 6 · Sub 1 Finishes KO 5 · Sub 0
+1 Streak -1
36 Age 37
6'4" 193 cm Height 5'10" 178 cm
77" 196 cm Reach 71" 180 cm
Southpaw Stance Southpaw
1635 Global Elo 1644
1582 Elo rating 1611
Dominick Reyes — Notable
At a glance
  • 70% of wins by KO or submission
  • 60% of wins finished in round 1
  • 100% takedown defense in last 3 fights
  • Career-best 6-fight win streak
Azamat Murzakanov — Notable
At a glance
  • 83% of wins by KO/TKO
  • 33% of wins finished in round 1
  • 100% takedown defense in last 3 fights
  • Career-best 6-fight win streak

Dominick Reyes — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 588 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
56% Head
  • Head 56%
  • Body 24%
  • Leg 20%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
75% Distance
  • Distance 75%
  • Clinch 10%
  • Ground 15%

Azamat Murzakanov — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 283 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
71% Head
  • Head 71%
  • Body 25%
  • Leg 4%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
69% Distance
  • Distance 69%
  • Clinch 6%
  • Ground 24%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.99
4.47
div avg 4.76
54%
56%
div avg 51%
3.40
3.29
div avg 4.12
50%
56%
div avg 52%
0.25
0.71
div avg 1.35
29%
21%
div avg 39%
83%
89%
div avg 71%
0.25
0.24
div avg 0.58
1
1
div avg 2

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Dominick Reyes
70% finish rate
KO 6 · Sub 1
can finish?
Azamat Murzakanov
finished 100%
1 of 1 losses
Azamat Murzakanov
83% finish rate
KO 5 · Sub 0
can finish?
Dominick Reyes
finished 80%
4 of 5 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Dominick Reyes has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1597 vs 1570, 3 quality wins to 0.

Dominick Reyes red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1597
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
3
of 10 UFC wins
Toughest win
Chris Weidman
Elo 1680 at fight time
Expected wins
7.7
+2.3 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 15 fights
1474
1576
Azamat Murzakanov blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1570
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 6 UFC wins
Toughest win
Alonzo Menifield
Elo 1584 at fight time
Expected wins
3.8
+2.2 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 7 fights
1525
1623

Common opponents

1 shared opponent · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

  • W
    W
    KO/TKO · R1
    Decision - Unanimous
    Jun 8, 2024
    Apr 15, 2023
Corner A recent form
Dominick Reyes
Corner B recent form
Azamat Murzakanov
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Dominick Reyes & Azamat Murzakanov on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.