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✓ Rongzhu won · by Decision · R3

Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu — Honest Elo matchup

lightweight
Other bouts 12
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night Glendale
Sep 12, 2026 · Glendale, Arizona, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Rafa Garcia
#43 7-5-0
Elo 1502
VS
Corner B
Rongzhu
#60 4-3-0
Elo 1464
Final result · recorded Sep 12, 2026
Rongzhu
defeated Rafa Garcia by Decision in round 3

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Rafa Garcia 50.0% · Rongzhu 50.0%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Rafa Garcia 60.4% · Rongzhu 39.6%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 11
Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado Main event · featherweight Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales flyweight Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki featherweight Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso women's flyweight Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes heavyweight David Martinez vs Dan Ige bantamweight Tim Elliott vs Edgar Chairez catch weight Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim Salikhov welterweight Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden Santos middleweight Drakkar Klose vs Tommy Gantt lightweight JJ Aldrich vs Regina Tarin women's flyweight

Tale of the tape

7-5-0 UFC record 4-3-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 0
-1 Streak +3
32 Age —
5'7" 170 cm Height —
70" 178 cm Reach —
Orthodox Stance —
1549 Global Elo 1515
1502 Elo rating 1464
Rafa Garcia — Notable ▼
Rongzhu — Notable ▼
At a glance

Rafa Garcia — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 710 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
80% Head
  • Head 80%
  • Body 12%
  • Leg 8%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
85% Distance
  • Distance 85%
  • Clinch 10%
  • Ground 5%

Rongzhu — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 560 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
75% Head
  • Head 75%
  • Body 12%
  • Leg 13%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
90% Distance
  • Distance 90%
  • Clinch 2%
  • Ground 8%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.33
5.86
div avg 4.56
44%
49%
div avg 51%
4.68
5.63
div avg 3.65
61%
55%
div avg 53%
3.02
1.57
div avg 1.98
42%
63%
div avg 38%
77%
85%
div avg 72%
0.37
0.00
div avg 0.69
3
2
div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Rafa Garcia
29% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 1
can finish?
Rongzhu
finished 67%
2 of 3 losses
Rongzhu
25% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Rafa Garcia
finished 20%
1 of 5 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Rafa Garcia has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1582 vs 1514, 0 quality wins to 0.

Rafa Garcia red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1582
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 7 UFC wins
Toughest win
Alexander Hernandez
Elo 1588 at fight time
Expected wins
5.4
+1.6 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 12 fights
1541
1495
Rongzhu blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1514
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win
Rafa Garcia
Elo 1569 at fight time
Expected wins
3.3
+0.7 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 7 fights
1442
1569
Corner A recent form
Rafa Garcia
Corner B recent form
Rongzhu
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Rafa Garcia & Rongzhu on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.