lightweight
Other bouts 12
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night Glendale
Sep 12, 2026 · Glendale, Arizona, USA
- 1featherweight MainYair RodriguezvsJean Silva
- 2flyweightBrandon MorenovsJoseph Morales
- 3women's flyweightManon FiorotvsAlexa Grasso
- 4heavyweightWaldo Cortes AcostavsCurtis Blaydes
- 5bantamweightDavid MartinezvsDan Ige
- 6flyweightTim ElliottvsEdgar Chairez
- 7welterweightIgnacio BahamondesvsMuslim Salikhov
- 8middleweightKelvin GastelumvsYousri Belgaroui
- 9women's flyweightJJ AldrichvsRegina Tarin
- 10featherweightTommy McMillenvsMarwan Rahiki
- 11Not linkedfeatherweightRamiro JimenezvsRodrigo Vera
- 12lightweightDrakkar KlosevsTommy Gantt
Honest Elo Meter
20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.
Share your result
Pick how you'd like to share. Copy image works in most chat / social apps — copy here, then paste into the post directly. Download saves a PNG you can attach manually.
Independent UFC analytics
Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.
Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.
Other fights on this card · 11
Yair Rodriguez vs Jean Silva Main event · featherweight Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales flyweight Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso women's flyweight Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes heavyweight David Martinez vs Dan Ige bantamweight Tim Elliott vs Edgar Chairez flyweight Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim Salikhov welterweight Kelvin Gastelum vs Yousri Belgaroui middleweight JJ Aldrich vs Regina Tarin women's flyweight Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki featherweight Drakkar Klose vs Tommy Gantt lightweight
Tale of the tape
| 7-4-0 | UFC record | 3-3-0 |
| KO 1 · Sub 1 | Finishes | KO 1 · Sub 0 |
| +3 | Streak | +2 |
| 32 | Age | — |
| 5'7" 170 cm | Height | — |
| 70" 178 cm | Reach | — |
| Orthodox | Stance | — |
| 1569 | Global Elo | 1495 |
| 1530 | Elo rating | 1443 |
Rafa Garcia — Notable ▼
At a glance
- 3-fight UFC win streak
- 86% takedown defense in last 3 fights
Rongzhu — Notable ▼
At a glance
- Top 5 · lightweightTakedown Accuracy
- 1Kaue Fernandes100%
- 2Rafael Fiziev71%
- 3Manuel Torres67%
- 4Esteban Ribovics67%
- 5Rongzhu63%
Rafa Garcia — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 637 landed total · career
Targets head · body · leg
79% Head
- Head 79%
- Body 13%
- Leg 8%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
85% Distance
- Distance 85%
- Clinch 10%
- Ground 5%
Rongzhu — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 451 landed total · career
Targets head · body · leg
76% Head
- Head 76%
- Body 12%
- Leg 11%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
88% Distance
- Distance 88%
- Clinch 2%
- Ground 10%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
4.28
Top 5 · lightweight
Strikes Landed per Minute
- 1Terrance McKinney7.95
- 2Esteban Ribovics7.41
- 3Gauge Young7.00
- 4Billy Quarantillo6.80
- 5King Green6.59
div avg 4.53
44%
Top 5 · lightweight
Striking Accuracy
- 1Benoit Saint Denis58%
- 2Marquel Mederos58%
- 3Quillan Salkilld58%
- 4Justin Gaethje58%
- 5Anshul Jubli57%
div avg 51%
4.42
Top 5 · lightweight
Lowest Strikes Absorbed
- 1Fares Ziam1.58
- 2Kaue Fernandes1.63
- 3Nurullo Aliev1.67
- 4Arman Tsarukyan1.80
- 5Joe Solecki1.90
div avg 3.76
61%
Top 5 · lightweight
Striking Defense
- 1Matheus Camilo67%
- 2Fares Ziam64%
- 3Nasrat Haqparast63%
- 4Ilia Topuria62%
- 5King Green62%
div avg 53%
3.22
Top 5 · lightweight
Takedowns per 15 Minutes
- 1Quillan Salkilld5.74
- 2Mateusz Gamrot5.08
- 3Matheus Camilo4.16
- 4Benoit Saint Denis4.15
- 5Grant Dawson3.62
div avg 1.86
46%
Top 5 · lightweight
Takedown Accuracy
- 1Kaue Fernandes100%
- 2Rafael Fiziev71%
- 3Manuel Torres67%
- 4Esteban Ribovics67%
- 5Rongzhu63%
div avg 37%
77%
Top 5 · lightweight
Takedown Defense
- 1Trey Ogden100%
- 2Ottman Azaitar100%
- 3Anshul Jubli100%
- 4Ilia Topuria95%
- 5Gauge Young92%
div avg 72%
0.40
Top 5 · lightweight
Submission Attempts per 15 Min
- 1Charles Oliveira2.59
- 2Terrance McKinney2.18
- 3Chase Hooper2.05
- 4Benoit Saint Denis1.73
- 5Jim Miller1.72
div avg 0.65
3
Top 5 · lightweight
Control Time per 15 Minutes
- 1Grant Dawson9.76
- 2Nurullo Aliev8.80
- 3Benoit Saint Denis7.08
- 4Terrance McKinney6.77
- 5Claudio Puelles6.69
div avg 4
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Rafa Garcia
29% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 1
can finish?
Rongzhu
finished 67%
2 of 3 losses
Rongzhu
33% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Rafa Garcia
finished 25%
1 of 4 losses
Strength of schedule in UFC
Rafa Garcia has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1594 vs 1500, 0 quality wins to 0.
Rafa Garcia red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1594
UFC level Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 7 UFC wins
Toughest win
Alexander Hernandez
Elo 1588 at fight time
Expected wins
4.8
+2.3 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career
· 11 fights
1541 1588
Rongzhu blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1500
UFC level Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Brandon Jenkins
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins
2.9
+0.1 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career
· 6 fights
1442 1452
Corner A recent form
Rafa Garcia
- Apr 25, 2026
- Sep 13, 2025
- Mar 29, 2025
- Oct 12, 2024
- Apr 15, 2023
Corner B recent form
Rongzhu
- Aug 23, 2025
- Feb 8, 2025
- Sep 7, 2024
- Feb 26, 2022
- Sep 18, 2021
Source
Per-fighter stats and bout records from
Rafa Garcia & Rongzhu on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice.
Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.