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✓ Tommy McMillen won · by Decision · R3

Tommy Mcmillen vs Marwan Rahiki — Honest Elo matchup

featherweight
Other bouts 12
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night Glendale
Sep 12, 2026 · Glendale, Arizona, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Tommy Mcmillen
#21 3-0-0
Elo 1566
VS
Corner B
Marwan Rahiki
#45 2-1-0
Elo 1484
Final result · recorded Sep 12, 2026
Tommy Mcmillen
defeated Marwan Rahiki by Decision in round 3

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Tommy Mcmillen 50.0% · Marwan Rahiki 50.0%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Tommy Mcmillen 50.2% · Marwan Rahiki 49.8%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 11
Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado Main event · featherweight Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales flyweight Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso women's flyweight Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes heavyweight David Martinez vs Dan Ige bantamweight Tim Elliott vs Edgar Chairez catch weight Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim Salikhov welterweight Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden Santos middleweight Drakkar Klose vs Tommy Gantt lightweight Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu lightweight JJ Aldrich vs Regina Tarin women's flyweight

Notable

Rahiki

Has never been finished — the only loss went to the scorecards.

Tale of the tape

3-0-0 UFC record 2-1-0
KO 2 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 2 · Sub 0
+3 Streak -1
28 Age 24
6'0" 183 cm Height 5'8" 173 cm
74" 188 cm Reach 72" 183 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1592 Global Elo 1532
1566 Elo rating 1484
Tommy Mcmillen — Notable ▼
At a glance
Marwan Rahiki — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • Fight of the Night in last fight
  • Has never been finished — durability signal
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • 100% of wins by KO/TKO

Tommy Mcmillen — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 415 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
70% Head
  • Head 70%
  • Body 23%
  • Leg 7%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
90% Distance
  • Distance 90%
  • Clinch 7%
  • Ground 3%

Marwan Rahiki — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 191 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
63% Head
  • Head 63%
  • Body 23%
  • Leg 14%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
92% Distance
  • Distance 92%
  • Clinch 6%
  • Ground 2%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

12.80
6.87
div avg 4.59
47%
50%
div avg 49%
4.78
5.87
div avg 3.37
60%
61%
div avg 57%
2.31
0.54
div avg 1.42
100%
50%
div avg 42%
50%
17%
div avg 65%
1.39
0.00
div avg 0.48
3
1
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Tommy Mcmillen
67% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 0
can finish?
Marwan Rahiki
finished 0%
never finished
Marwan Rahiki
100% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 0
can finish?
Tommy Mcmillen
finished —
no losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1519 (Tommy Mcmillen) vs 1511 (Marwan Rahiki).

Tommy Mcmillen red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1519
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Marwan Rahiki
Elo 1561 at fight time
Expected wins
1.6
+1.4 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 3 fights
1467
1561
Marwan Rahiki blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1511
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win
Ollie Schmid
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins
1.6
+0.4 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 3 fights
1470
1563
Corner A recent form
Tommy Mcmillen
Corner B recent form
Marwan Rahiki
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Tommy Mcmillen & Marwan Rahiki on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.