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✓ Regina Tarin won · by Decision · R3

JJ Aldrich vs Regina Tarin — Honest Elo matchup

women's flyweight
Other bouts 12
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night Glendale
Sep 12, 2026 · Glendale, Arizona, USA
View full event card
Corner A
JJ Aldrich
#19 11-7-0
Elo 1500
VS
Corner B
Regina Tarin
2-0-0
Elo 1529
Final result · recorded Sep 12, 2026
Regina Tarin
defeated JJ Aldrich by Decision in round 3

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: JJ Aldrich 22.1% · Regina Tarin 77.9%

Pure Elo pre-fight: JJ Aldrich 59.8% · Regina Tarin 40.2%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 11
Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado Main event · featherweight Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales flyweight Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki featherweight Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso women's flyweight Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes heavyweight David Martinez vs Dan Ige bantamweight Tim Elliott vs Edgar Chairez catch weight Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim Salikhov welterweight Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden Santos middleweight Drakkar Klose vs Tommy Gantt lightweight Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu lightweight

Notable

Tarin

Fewer than 4 UFC fights — the rating is provisional and the uncertainty band is wide.

Tale of the tape

11-7-0 UFC record 2-0-0
KO 1 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 0 · Sub 0
-1 Streak +2
34 Age 21
5'5" 165 cm Height 5'7" 170 cm
67" 170 cm Reach 66" 168 cm
Southpaw Stance Southpaw
1549 Global Elo 1555
1500 Elo rating 1529
JJ Aldrich — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • UFC veteran since 2016
Regina Tarin — Notable ▼

JJ Aldrich — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 985 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
80% Head
  • Head 80%
  • Body 13%
  • Leg 7%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
80% Distance
  • Distance 80%
  • Clinch 12%
  • Ground 8%

Regina Tarin — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 191 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
63% Head
  • Head 63%
  • Body 28%
  • Leg 8%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
77% Distance
  • Distance 77%
  • Clinch 23%
  • Ground 0%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

3.93
6.37
div avg 4.16
47%
45%
div avg 45%
4.39
5.60
div avg 3.71
62%
54%
div avg 56%
0.66
0.50
div avg 1.37
23%
33%
div avg 38%
68%
83%
div avg 65%
0.00
0.00
div avg 0.39
2
1
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

JJ Aldrich
9% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Regina Tarin
finished —
no losses
Regina Tarin
0% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 0
can finish?
JJ Aldrich
finished 29%
2 of 7 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1513 (JJ Aldrich) vs 1535 (Regina Tarin).

JJ Aldrich red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1513
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 11 UFC wins
Toughest win
Gillian Robertson
Elo 1565 at fight time
Expected wins
9.7
+1.3 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 18 fights
1500
1529
Regina Tarin blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1535
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win
JJ Aldrich
Elo 1567 at fight time
Expected wins
0.9
+1.1 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 2 fights
1502
1567
Corner A recent form
JJ Aldrich
Corner B recent form
Regina Tarin
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from JJ Aldrich & Regina Tarin on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.