Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales — Honest Elo matchup
Other bouts 12
- 1featherweight MainJean SilvavsJose Delgado
- 3featherweightTommy McMillenvsMarwan Rahiki
- 4women's flyweightManon FiorotvsAlexa Grasso
- 5heavyweightWaldo Cortes AcostavsCurtis Blaydes
- 6bantamweightDavid MartinezvsDan Ige
- 7catch weightTim ElliottvsEdgar Chairez
- 8welterweightIgnacio BahamondesvsMuslim Salikhov
- 9middleweightYousri BelgarouivsDjorden Santos
- 10lightweightDrakkar KlosevsTommy Gantt
- 11lightweightRafa GarciavsRongzhu
- 12Not linkedfeatherweightSean King IIIvsJessie Rosas
- 13women's flyweightJJ AldrichvsRegina Tarin
Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Brandon Moreno 36.2% · Joseph Morales 63.8%
Pure Elo pre-fight: Brandon Moreno 57.3% · Joseph Morales 42.7%
The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.
Independent UFC analytics
Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.
Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.
Other fights on this card · 11
Notable
7 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.
Title-fight record 3–2.
Tale of the tape
| 12-7-2 | UFC record | 3-3-0 |
| KO 3 · Sub 3 | Finishes | KO 0 · Sub 3 |
| +1 | Streak | -1 |
| 32 | Age | 32 |
| 5'7" 170 cm | Height | 5'6" 168 cm |
| 70" 178 cm | Reach | 69" 175 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Switch |
| 1614 | Global Elo | 1535 |
| 1562 | Elo rating | 1484 |
Brandon Moreno — Notable ▼
- 2 successful title defenses
- 50% of wins by KO or submission
- UFC veteran since 2016
Joseph Morales — Notable ▼
- Top 5 · flyweightSubmission Attempts per 15 Min
- 1Jimmy Flick2.39
- 2Joseph Morales2.20
- 3Edgar Chairez1.65
- 4Tagir Ulanbekov1.52
- 5Felipe Bunes1.44
- 100% of wins by submission
- 67% of wins finished in round 1
- UFC veteran since 2017
Brandon Moreno — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1375 landed total · career
- Head 73%
- Body 17%
- Leg 10%
- Distance 88%
- Clinch 6%
- Ground 7%
Joseph Morales — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 150 landed total · career
- Head 72%
- Body 21%
- Leg 7%
- Distance 70%
- Clinch 12%
- Ground 18%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Joshua Van8.26
- 2Brandon Royval5.60
- 3Jose Ochoa5.16
- 4Daniel Barez4.97
- 5Cj Vergara4.95
- 1Joshua Van58%
- 2Cj Vergara57%
- 3Andre Lima56%
- 4Manel Kape55%
- 5Tatsuro Taira54%
- 1Jose Johnson1.85
- 2Nyamjargal Tumendemberel1.92
- 3Asu Almabayev1.94
- 4Rei Tsuruya2.02
- 5Kyoji Horiguchi2.08
- 1Alden Coria68%
- 2Matheus Nicolau66%
- 3Kai Kara-France64%
- 4Sumudaerji64%
- 5Kyoji Horiguchi64%
- 1Asu Almabayev4.74
- 2Rei Tsuruya3.99
- 3Cody Durden3.82
- 4Tim Elliott3.69
- 5Tatsuro Taira3.57
- 1Nyamjargal Tumendemberel67%
- 2Jose Johnson67%
- 3Brandon Royval64%
- 4Joshua Van62%
- 5Andre Lima56%
- 1Ramazan Temirov100%
- 2Matheus Nicolau90%
- 3Azat Maksum86%
- 4Alessandro Costa85%
- 5Kai Kara-France84%
- 1Jimmy Flick2.39
- 2Joseph Morales2.20
- 3Edgar Chairez1.65
- 4Tagir Ulanbekov1.52
- 5Felipe Bunes1.44
- 1Tatsuro Taira8.08
- 2Asu Almabayev7.34
- 3Rei Tsuruya6.54
- 4Tagir Ulanbekov6.11
- 5Cody Durden5.48
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Brandon Moreno has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1576 vs 1528, 6 quality wins to 0.
Common opponents
1 shared opponent · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.
- Sep 12, 2026
- Feb 28, 2026
- Dec 6, 2025
- Mar 29, 2025
- Nov 2, 2024
- Sep 12, 2026
- Nov 8, 2025
- Aug 16, 2025
- Nov 10, 2018
- Feb 3, 2018