HonestElo
← welterweight

Ian Machado Garry

Active #4 welterweight
Elo rating
1703 ±24
LCB 1672
Rank
#4
top 3% of division
UFC record
10-1-0
KO 3 · Sub 0 · Dec 7
Streak
+2
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +32
Last fight
Nov 22, 2025
W by Decision

Elo history

11 fights · tap & drag
Nov 6, 2021 — W vs Jordan Williams Δ+28Apr 9, 2022 — W vs Darian Weeks Δ+24Jul 2, 2022 — W vs Gabe Green Δ+28Mar 4, 2023 — W vs Song Kenan Δ+31May 13, 2023 — W vs Daniel Rodriguez Δ+34Aug 19, 2023 — W vs Neil Magny Δ+17Feb 17, 2024 — W vs Geoff Neal Δ+15Jun 29, 2024 — W vs Michael Page Δ+10Dec 7, 2024 — L vs Shavkat Rakhmonov Δ-15Apr 26, 2025 — W vs Carlos Prates Δ+15Nov 22, 2025 — W vs Belal Muhammad Δ+17 14881552161516791743 2022202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":202.7,"elo":1528,"date":"2021-11-06","opp":"Jordan Williams","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":1,"x":112.8,"y":182.4,"elo":1552,"date":"2022-04-09","opp":"Darian Weeks","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":2,"x":161.3,"y":159.4,"elo":1580,"date":"2022-07-02","opp":"Gabe Green","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":3,"x":302.6,"y":133.8,"elo":1611,"date":"2023-03-04","opp":"Song Kenan","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":4,"x":343,"y":105.7,"elo":1645,"date":"2023-05-13","opp":"Daniel Rodriguez","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":5,"x":399.5,"y":91.6,"elo":1662,"date":"2023-08-19","opp":"Neil Magny","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":6,"x":504.5,"y":79.1,"elo":1676,"date":"2024-02-17","opp":"Geoff Neal","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":7,"x":581.2,"y":70.9,"elo":1686,"date":"2024-06-29","opp":"Michael Page","result":"W","delta":10},{"i":8,"x":674.1,"y":83.6,"elo":1671,"date":"2024-12-07","opp":"Shavkat Rakhmonov","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":9,"x":754.9,"y":71.4,"elo":1686,"date":"2025-04-26","opp":"Carlos Prates","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":10,"x":876,"y":57.3,"elo":1703,"date":"2025-11-22","opp":"Belal Muhammad","result":"W","delta":17}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Nov 22, 2025 Belal Muhammad W +17
Apr 26, 2025 Carlos Prates W +15
Dec 7, 2024 Shavkat Rakhmonov L -15
Jun 29, 2024 Michael Page W +10
Feb 17, 2024 Geoff Neal W +15

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.70 avg 3.55
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
54% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.81 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
53% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.91 avg 1.83
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
31% avg 43%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
80% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.36 avg 0.45
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
30%
3 / 10
Finish rate
KO
3
30% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
7
70% of wins
KO: 3 (30%) 3 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 7 (70%) 7
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
2 67%
R2
R3
1 33%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1645
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
5.9
actual +4 vs expected