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← welterweight

Ian Machado Garry "The Future"

Active #5 welterweight · age 28 · Orthodox · 6'3" 191 cm · 170 lb 77 kg · reach 74" 188 cm
Upcoming bout Sat, Aug 15
vs Islam Makhachev · UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
At a glance
  • Has never been finished — durability signal
  • 88% takedown defense in last 3 fights
Elo rating
1669
Global Elo 1703 ±26
Rank
#5
top 5% of division
UFC record
10-1-0
KO 3 · Sub 0 · Dec 7
Streak
+2
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +17
Last fight
Nov 22, 2025
Win by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
2h 42m
Avg fight time
14:45
Bonuses
1
Fights per year
2.7
Since last fight
7mo

Honest Elo history

11 fights · tap & drag
Nov 6, 2021 — W vs Jordan Williams Δ+28Apr 9, 2022 — W vs Darian Weeks Δ+24Jul 2, 2022 — W vs Gabe Green Δ+28Mar 4, 2023 — W vs Song Kenan Δ+31May 13, 2023 — W vs Daniel Rodriguez Δ+34Aug 19, 2023 — W vs Neil Magny Δ+17Feb 17, 2024 — W vs Geoff Neal Δ+15Jun 29, 2024 — W vs Michael Page Δ+10Dec 7, 2024 — L vs Shavkat Rakhmonov Δ-15Apr 26, 2025 — W vs Carlos Prates Δ+15Nov 22, 2025 — W vs Belal Muhammad Δ+17 145015001550160016501700 2022202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":352.7,"elo":1495,"date":"2021-11-06","opp":"Jordan Williams","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":1,"x":165.1,"y":321.6,"elo":1519,"date":"2022-04-09","opp":"Darian Weeks","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":2,"x":206,"y":286.2,"elo":1547,"date":"2022-07-02","opp":"Gabe Green","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":3,"x":325.5,"y":246.8,"elo":1578,"date":"2023-03-04","opp":"Song Kenan","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":4,"x":359.6,"y":203.7,"elo":1611,"date":"2023-05-13","opp":"Daniel Rodriguez","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":5,"x":407.3,"y":181.9,"elo":1628,"date":"2023-08-19","opp":"Neil Magny","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":6,"x":496.1,"y":162.8,"elo":1643,"date":"2024-02-17","opp":"Geoff Neal","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":7,"x":560.9,"y":150.2,"elo":1653,"date":"2024-06-29","opp":"Michael Page","result":"W","delta":10},{"i":8,"x":639.4,"y":169.7,"elo":1638,"date":"2024-12-07","opp":"Shavkat Rakhmonov","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":9,"x":707.6,"y":150.9,"elo":1652,"date":"2025-04-26","opp":"Carlos Prates","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":10,"x":810,"y":129.3,"elo":1669,"date":"2025-11-22","opp":"Belal Muhammad","result":"W","delta":17}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Nov 22, 2025 Belal Muhammad W +17
Apr 26, 2025 Carlos Prates W +15
Dec 7, 2024 Shavkat Rakhmonov L -15
Jun 29, 2024 Michael Page W +10
Feb 17, 2024 Geoff Neal W +15

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
30%
3 / 10
Finish rate
KO
3
30% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
7
70% of wins
KO: 3 (30%) 3 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 7 (70%) 7
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
2 67%
R2
R3
1 33%
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 775 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
56% Head
  • Head 56%
  • Body 19%
  • Leg 25%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
91% Distance
  • Distance 91%
  • Clinch 5%
  • Ground 4%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
Never been finished
All 1 loss went to the scorecards

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1645
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
5
of 10 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Belal Muhammad
Elo 1705 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
5.9
+4.1 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 11 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1447
1705
Notable wins
Belal Muhammad 1705 Neil Magny 1666 Carlos Prates 1643 Geoff Neal 1637 Daniel Rodriguez 1617

Top welterweight

See full rankings →
Islam Makhachev C
#1 · Elo 1802
Kamaru Usman
#2 · Elo 1691
Shavkat Rakhmonov
#3 · Elo 1679
Michael Morales
#4 · Elo 1671
Sean Brady
#6 · Elo 1645
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Ian Machado Garry on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.