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Belal Muhammad

Active #7 welterweight · Orthodox · 180 cm · reach 183 cm
Elo rating
1688 ±37
LCB 1640
Rank
#7
top 7% of division
UFC record
15-5-0
KO 2 · Sub 1 · Dec 12
Streak
-2
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -39
Last fight
Nov 22, 2025
L by Decision

Elo history

20 fights · tap & drag
Jul 7, 2016 — L vs Alan Jouban Δ-25Sep 17, 2016 — W vs Augusto Montano Δ+36Nov 12, 2016 — L vs Vicente Luque Δ-28Feb 11, 2017 — W vs Randy Brown Δ+35Jul 8, 2017 — W vs Jordan Mein Δ+30Nov 18, 2017 — W vs Tim Means Δ+17Jun 1, 2018 — W vs Chance Rencountre Δ+13Jan 19, 2019 — L vs Geoff Neal Δ-17Apr 13, 2019 — W vs Curtis Millender Δ+16Sep 7, 2019 — W vs Takashi Sato Δ+16Jun 20, 2020 — W vs Lyman Good Δ+14Feb 13, 2021 — W vs Dhiego Lima Δ+9Jun 12, 2021 — W vs Demian Maia Δ+19Dec 18, 2021 — W vs Stephen Thompson Δ+16Apr 16, 2022 — W vs Vicente Luque Δ+19Oct 22, 2022 — W vs Sean Brady Δ+18May 6, 2023 — W vs Gilbert Burns Δ+16Jul 27, 2024 — W vs Leon Edwards Δ+22May 10, 2025 — L vs Jack Della Maddalena Δ-22Nov 22, 2025 — L vs Ian Machado Garry Δ-17 14351518160116841767 2018202020222024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":210.4,"elo":1475,"date":"2016-07-07","opp":"Alan Jouban","result":"L","delta":-25},{"i":1,"x":41.9,"y":187.3,"elo":1512,"date":"2016-09-17","opp":"Augusto Montano","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":2,"x":55.8,"y":205.1,"elo":1484,"date":"2016-11-12","opp":"Vicente Luque","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":3,"x":78.5,"y":182.6,"elo":1519,"date":"2017-02-11","opp":"Randy Brown","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":4,"x":115,"y":163.7,"elo":1548,"date":"2017-07-08","opp":"Jordan Mein","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":5,"x":148.1,"y":153.1,"elo":1565,"date":"2017-11-18","opp":"Tim Means","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":6,"x":196.6,"y":144.7,"elo":1578,"date":"2018-06-01","opp":"Chance Rencountre","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":7,"x":254.4,"y":155.6,"elo":1561,"date":"2019-01-19","opp":"Geoff Neal","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":8,"x":275.2,"y":145.2,"elo":1577,"date":"2019-04-13","opp":"Curtis Millender","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":9,"x":311.8,"y":134.8,"elo":1594,"date":"2019-09-07","opp":"Takashi Sato","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":10,"x":383.2,"y":125.6,"elo":1608,"date":"2020-06-20","opp":"Lyman Good","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":11,"x":442.4,"y":119.7,"elo":1617,"date":"2021-02-13","opp":"Dhiego Lima","result":"W","delta":9},{"i":12,"x":472,"y":107.6,"elo":1636,"date":"2021-06-12","opp":"Demian Maia","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":13,"x":519,"y":97.3,"elo":1652,"date":"2021-12-18","opp":"Stephen Thompson","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":14,"x":548.6,"y":85.5,"elo":1671,"date":"2022-04-16","opp":"Vicente Luque","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":15,"x":595.6,"y":74.1,"elo":1689,"date":"2022-10-22","opp":"Sean Brady","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":16,"x":644.4,"y":63.9,"elo":1705,"date":"2023-05-06","opp":"Gilbert Burns","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":17,"x":755.8,"y":49.6,"elo":1727,"date":"2024-07-27","opp":"Leon Edwards","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":18,"x":827.2,"y":63.8,"elo":1705,"date":"2025-05-10","opp":"Jack Della Maddalena","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":19,"x":876,"y":74.6,"elo":1688,"date":"2025-11-22","opp":"Ian Machado Garry","result":"L","delta":-17}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Nov 22, 2025 Ian Machado Garry L -17
May 10, 2025 Jack Della Maddalena L -22
Jul 27, 2024 Leon Edwards W +22
May 6, 2023 Gilbert Burns W +16
Oct 22, 2022 Sean Brady W +18

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.37 avg 3.56
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
43% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.74 avg 2.81
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
56% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
2.12 avg 1.78
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
37% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
90% avg 69%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.14 avg 0.45
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
20%
3 / 15
Finish rate
KO
2
13% of wins
SUB
1
7% of wins
DEC
12
80% of wins
KO: 2 (13%) 2 Sub: 1 (7%) Dec: 12 (80%) 12
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
R2
1 33%
R3
2 67%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1693
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
10.0
actual +5 vs expected