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✓ Francisco Prado won · by TKO · R1

Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim — Honest Elo matchup

lightweight
Other bouts 11
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night
Oct 10, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Francisco Prado
#86 2-5-0
Elo 1396
VS
Corner B
Ismael Bonfim
#85 2-5-0
Elo 1397
Final result · recorded Oct 11, 2026
Francisco Prado
defeated Ismael Bonfim by TKO in round 1

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Francisco Prado 45.2% · Ismael Bonfim 54.8%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Francisco Prado 43.3% · Ismael Bonfim 56.7%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 10
Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan Main event · middleweight Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert lightweight Julius Walker vs Gerald Meerschaert light heavyweight Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza women's strawweight Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi bantamweight Alice Pereira vs Daria Zhelezniakova women's bantamweight Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto women's flyweight Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III featherweight Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan welterweight Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro light heavyweight

Notable

Prado

Has never been finished — all 5 losses went to the scorecards.

Tale of the tape

2-5-0 UFC record 2-5-0
KO 2 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 0
+1 Streak -4
24 Age 30
5'10" 178 cm Height 5'8" 173 cm
69" 175 cm Reach 71" 180 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1444 Global Elo 1449
1396 Elo rating 1397
Francisco Prado — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • Has never been finished — durability signal
  • 100% of wins by KO/TKO
  • 100% of wins finished in round 1
Ismael Bonfim — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 4-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • 50% of wins by KO/TKO

Francisco Prado — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 316 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
52% Head
  • Head 52%
  • Body 21%
  • Leg 27%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
76% Distance
  • Distance 76%
  • Clinch 6%
  • Ground 18%

Ismael Bonfim — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 241 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
63% Head
  • Head 63%
  • Body 20%
  • Leg 16%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
91% Distance
  • Distance 91%
  • Clinch 8%
  • Ground 1%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

3.79
4.75
div avg 4.56
44%
54%
div avg 51%
4.24
4.40
div avg 3.65
54%
53%
div avg 53%
1.08
1.18
div avg 1.98
26%
33%
div avg 38%
40%
62%
div avg 72%
0.72
0.00
div avg 0.69
3
1
div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Francisco Prado
100% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 0
can finish?
Ismael Bonfim
finished 100%
5 of 5 losses
Ismael Bonfim
50% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Francisco Prado
finished 0%
never finished

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1519 (Francisco Prado) vs 1531 (Ismael Bonfim).

Francisco Prado red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1519
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win
Ottman Azaitar
Elo 1530 at fight time
Expected wins
3.0
−1.0 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 7 fights
1512
1470
Ismael Bonfim blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1531
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win
Vinc Pichel
Elo 1599 at fight time
Expected wins
3.2
−1.2 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 7 fights
1560
1423
Corner A recent form
Francisco Prado
Corner B recent form
Ismael Bonfim
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Francisco Prado & Ismael Bonfim on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.