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Jake Matthews "The Celtic Kid"

Active #20 welterweight · age 31 · Orthodox · 5'11" 180 cm · 170 lb 77 kg · reach 73" 185 cm
At a glance
  • 50% of wins by KO or submission
  • UFC veteran since 2014
Elo rating
1580
Global Elo 1626 ±35
Rank
#20
top 26% of division
UFC record
16-8-0
KO 1 · Sub 6 · Dec 8
Streak
+1
Δ90d +14 · Δ1y +9
Last fight
May 30, 2026
Win by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
4h 36m
Avg fight time
11:29
Bonuses
4
Fights per year
2.0
Ground control
1h 13m
Since last fight
21d

Honest Elo history

24 fights · tap & drag
Jun 28, 2014 — W vs Dashon Johnson Δ+33Nov 7, 2014 — W vs Vagner Rocha Δ+28May 9, 2015 — L vs James Vick Δ-31Nov 14, 2015 — W vs Akbarh Arreola Δ+25Mar 19, 2016 — W vs Johnny Case Δ+38Jul 8, 2016 — L vs Kevin Lee Δ-19Nov 26, 2016 — L vs Andrew Holbrook Δ-19Nov 18, 2017 — W vs Bojan Velickovic Δ+14Feb 10, 2018 — W vs Li Jingliang Δ+16Jun 23, 2018 — W vs Shinsho Anzai Δ+16Dec 1, 2018 — L vs Anthony Rocco Martin Δ-21Oct 5, 2019 — W vs Rostem Akman Δ+11Feb 22, 2020 — W vs Emil Meek Δ+12Sep 26, 2020 — W vs Diego Sanchez Δ+16Mar 6, 2021 — L vs Sean Brady Δ-20Jun 11, 2022 — W vs Andre Fialho Δ+16Dec 17, 2022 — L vs Matthew Semelsberger Δ-18Jul 29, 2023 — W vs Darrius Flowers Δ+14Nov 18, 2023 — L vs Michael Morales Δ-17Jun 1, 2024 — W vs Phil Rowe Δ+14Feb 8, 2025 — W vs Francisco Prado Δ+11Jul 12, 2025 — W vs Chidi Njokuani Δ+14Sep 27, 2025 — L vs Neil Magny Δ-18May 30, 2026 — W vs Carlston Harris Δ+14 14501475150015251550157516001625 201620182020202220242026 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":342,"elo":1487,"date":"2014-06-28","opp":"Dashon Johnson","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":111.8,"y":291.1,"elo":1515,"date":"2014-11-07","opp":"Vagner Rocha","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":2,"x":142.1,"y":347.1,"elo":1484,"date":"2015-05-09","opp":"James Vick","result":"L","delta":-31},{"i":3,"x":173.3,"y":301.7,"elo":1509,"date":"2015-11-14","opp":"Akbarh Arreola","result":"W","delta":25},{"i":4,"x":194.2,"y":231.7,"elo":1548,"date":"2016-03-19","opp":"Johnny Case","result":"W","delta":38},{"i":5,"x":212.5,"y":266.3,"elo":1529,"date":"2016-07-08","opp":"Kevin Lee","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":6,"x":235.9,"y":301.9,"elo":1509,"date":"2016-11-26","opp":"Andrew Holbrook","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":7,"x":294.9,"y":276.7,"elo":1523,"date":"2017-11-18","opp":"Bojan Velickovic","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":8,"x":308.8,"y":247.6,"elo":1539,"date":"2018-02-10","opp":"Li Jingliang","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":9,"x":330.8,"y":219.3,"elo":1554,"date":"2018-06-23","opp":"Shinsho Anzai","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":10,"x":357.4,"y":258,"elo":1533,"date":"2018-12-01","opp":"Anthony Rocco Martin","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":11,"x":408.3,"y":237.6,"elo":1544,"date":"2019-10-05","opp":"Rostem Akman","result":"W","delta":11},{"i":12,"x":431.5,"y":216.5,"elo":1556,"date":"2020-02-22","opp":"Emil Meek","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":13,"x":467.4,"y":188.2,"elo":1571,"date":"2020-09-26","opp":"Diego Sanchez","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":14,"x":494,"y":224.4,"elo":1552,"date":"2021-03-06","opp":"Sean Brady","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":15,"x":570.4,"y":195.3,"elo":1567,"date":"2022-06-11","opp":"Andre Fialho","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":16,"x":601.6,"y":228.4,"elo":1549,"date":"2022-12-17","opp":"Matthew Semelsberger","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":17,"x":638.7,"y":203.7,"elo":1563,"date":"2023-07-29","opp":"Darrius Flowers","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":18,"x":657.2,"y":234.3,"elo":1546,"date":"2023-11-18","opp":"Michael Morales","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":19,"x":689.6,"y":208.3,"elo":1560,"date":"2024-06-01","opp":"Phil Rowe","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":20,"x":731.3,"y":188.9,"elo":1571,"date":"2025-02-08","opp":"Francisco Prado","result":"W","delta":11},{"i":21,"x":756.8,"y":164.1,"elo":1585,"date":"2025-07-12","opp":"Chidi Njokuani","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":22,"x":769.5,"y":196.8,"elo":1567,"date":"2025-09-27","opp":"Neil Magny","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":23,"x":810,"y":171.7,"elo":1580,"date":"2026-05-30","opp":"Carlston Harris","result":"W","delta":14}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
May 30, 2026 Carlston Harris W +14
Sep 27, 2025 Neil Magny L -18
Jul 12, 2025 Chidi Njokuani W +14
Feb 8, 2025 Francisco Prado W +11
Jun 1, 2024 Phil Rowe W +14

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
44%
7 / 16
Finish rate
KO
1
6% of wins
SUB
6
38% of wins
DEC
8
50% of wins
KO: 1 (7%) Sub: 6 (40%) 6 Dec: 8 (53%) 8
Finishes by round
8 total
R1
2 25%
R2
4 50%
R3
2 25%
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 925 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
72% Head
  • Head 72%
  • Body 17%
  • Leg 11%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
72% Distance
  • Distance 72%
  • Clinch 7%
  • Ground 21%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
63%
of losses by finish
5 of 8 · usually R3
1 KO/TKO 4 Sub 3 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1552
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
1
of 16 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Johnny Case
Elo 1610 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
13.4
+2.6 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 24 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1500
1560
Notable wins
Johnny Case 1610

Top welterweight

See full rankings →
Islam Makhachev C
#1 · Elo 1802
Kamaru Usman
#2 · Elo 1691
Shavkat Rakhmonov
#3 · Elo 1679
Michael Morales
#4 · Elo 1671
Ian Machado Garry
#5 · Elo 1669
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Jake Matthews on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.