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Francisco Prado

Active #86 lightweight · age 24 · Orthodox · 5'10" 178 cm · 170 lb 77 kg · reach 69" 175 cm
At a glance
  • Has never been finished — durability signal
  • 100% of wins by KO/TKO
  • 100% of wins finished in round 1
Elo rating
1396
Global Elo 1444 ±37
Rank
#86
top 96% of division
UFC record
2-5-0
KO 2 · Sub 0 · Dec 0
Streak
+1
Δ90d +21 · Δ1y +10
Last fight
Oct 10, 2026
Win by KO · R1

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
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vs Compare across divisions →

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Honest Elo history

7 fights · tap & drag
Feb 11, 2023 — L vs Jamie Mullarkey Δ-28Jul 15, 2023 — W vs Ottman Azaitar Δ+39Feb 24, 2024 — L vs Daniel Zellhuber Δ-27Feb 8, 2025 — L vs Jake Matthews Δ-19Jul 19, 2025 — L vs Nikolay Veretennikov Δ-31Apr 11, 2026 — L vs Charles Radtke Δ-11Oct 10, 2026 — W vs Ismael Bonfim Δ+21 1350137514001425145014751500 202420252026 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":251.7,"elo":1424,"date":"2023-02-11","opp":"Jamie Mullarkey","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":1,"x":172.9,"y":169.6,"elo":1463,"date":"2023-07-15","opp":"Ottman Azaitar","result":"W","delta":39},{"i":2,"x":293.6,"y":227,"elo":1436,"date":"2024-02-24","opp":"Daniel Zellhuber","result":"L","delta":-27},{"i":3,"x":482,"y":267.7,"elo":1417,"date":"2025-02-08","opp":"Jake Matthews","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":4,"x":568.7,"y":332.8,"elo":1386,"date":"2025-07-19","opp":"Nikolay Veretennikov","result":"L","delta":-31},{"i":5,"x":712,"y":356.9,"elo":1375,"date":"2026-04-11","opp":"Charles Radtke","result":"L","delta":-11},{"i":6,"x":810,"y":312.3,"elo":1396,"date":"2026-10-10","opp":"Ismael Bonfim","result":"W","delta":21}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Oct 10, 2026 Ismael Bonfim W +21
Apr 11, 2026 Charles Radtke L -11
Jul 19, 2025 Nikolay Veretennikov L -31
Feb 8, 2025 Jake Matthews L -19
Feb 24, 2024 Daniel Zellhuber L -27
2 post-fight bonuses
  • Performance of the Night ×1
  • Fight of the Night ×1
$100,000 in bonus money

UFC awards a discretionary bonus for the night's best fight and finishes. Francisco Prado has earned 2. The payout was $50,000 from 2014 to 2025 and $100,000 from 2026; select cards have paid more.

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
100%
2 / 2
Finish rate
KO
2
100% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
KO: 2 (100%) 2 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 0 (0%)
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
2 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 316 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
52% Head
  • Head 52%
  • Body 21%
  • Leg 27%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
76% Distance
  • Distance 76%
  • Clinch 6%
  • Ground 18%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
Never been finished
All 5 losses went to the scorecards

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1519
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Ottman Azaitar
Elo 1530 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
3.0
−1.0 wins below what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 7 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1512
1470
Career at a glance
Octagon time
1h 23m
Avg fight time
11:55
Fights per year
1.9
Since last fight
7d
Bonuses
2
vs Compare Francisco Prado with any fighter any division · any era · honest simulation →

Top lightweight

See full rankings →
Ilia Topuria
#1 · Elo 1686
Charles Oliveira
#2 · Elo 1686
Arman Tsarukyan
#3 · Elo 1674
Justin Gaethje C
#4 · Elo 1670
Quillan Salkilld
#5 · Elo 1652
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Francisco Prado on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.