HonestElo
← welterweight

Francisco Prado

Active #90 welterweight
Elo rating
1434 ±33
LCB 1392
Rank
#90
top 98% of division
UFC record
1-4-0
KO 1 · Sub 0 · Dec 0
Streak
-3
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -31
Last fight
Jul 19, 2025
L by Decision

Elo history

5 fights · tap & drag
Feb 11, 2023 — L vs Jamie Mullarkey Δ-28Jul 15, 2023 — W vs Ottman Azaitar Δ+39Feb 24, 2024 — L vs Daniel Zellhuber Δ-27Feb 8, 2025 — L vs Jake Matthews Δ-19Jul 19, 2025 — L vs Nikolay Veretennikov Δ-31 13941433147215121551 20242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":130.4,"elo":1472,"date":"2023-02-11","opp":"Jamie Mullarkey","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":1,"x":171.6,"y":78.2,"elo":1511,"date":"2023-07-15","opp":"Ottman Azaitar","result":"W","delta":39},{"i":2,"x":386.3,"y":114.6,"elo":1484,"date":"2024-02-24","opp":"Daniel Zellhuber","result":"L","delta":-27},{"i":3,"x":721.7,"y":140.4,"elo":1465,"date":"2025-02-08","opp":"Jake Matthews","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":4,"x":876,"y":181.8,"elo":1434,"date":"2025-07-19","opp":"Nikolay Veretennikov","result":"L","delta":-31}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jul 19, 2025 Nikolay Veretennikov L -31
Feb 8, 2025 Jake Matthews L -19
Feb 24, 2024 Daniel Zellhuber L -27
Jul 15, 2023 Ottman Azaitar W +39
Feb 11, 2023 Jamie Mullarkey L -28

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.03 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
44% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.88 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
55% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.92 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
19% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
50% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.46 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
100%
1 / 1
Finish rate
KO
1
100% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
KO: 1 (100%) 1 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 0 (0%)
Finishes by round
1 total
R1
1 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1525
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
2.2
actual -1 vs expected