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✓ Jai Herbert won · by Decision · R3

Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert — Honest Elo matchup

lightweight
Other bouts 11
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night
Oct 10, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Matheus Camilo
#70 2-2-0
Elo 1448
VS
Corner B
Jai Herbert
#52 5-5-1
Elo 1482
Final result · recorded Oct 11, 2026
Jai Herbert
defeated Matheus Camilo by Decision in round 3

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Matheus Camilo 69.7% · Jai Herbert 30.3%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Matheus Camilo 54.7% · Jai Herbert 45.3%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 10
Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan Main event · middleweight Julius Walker vs Gerald Meerschaert light heavyweight Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza women's strawweight Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi bantamweight Alice Pereira vs Daria Zhelezniakova women's bantamweight Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto women's flyweight Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III featherweight Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim lightweight Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan welterweight Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro light heavyweight

Notable

Herbert

Reach advantage of ~8".

Tale of the tape

2-2-0 UFC record 5-5-1
KO 1 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 2 · Sub 0
-1 Streak +2
25 Age 38
5'10" 178 cm Height 6'1" 185 cm
69" 175 cm Reach 77" 196 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1506 Global Elo 1522
1448 Elo rating 1482
Matheus Camilo — Notable ▼
At a glance
Jai Herbert — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 40% of wins finished in round 1

Matheus Camilo — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 99 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
63% Head
  • Head 63%
  • Body 16%
  • Leg 21%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
88% Distance
  • Distance 88%
  • Clinch 4%
  • Ground 8%

Jai Herbert — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 395 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
52% Head
  • Head 52%
  • Body 30%
  • Leg 17%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
79% Distance
  • Distance 79%
  • Clinch 14%
  • Ground 7%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

2.46
3.24
div avg 4.56
46%
40%
div avg 51%
3.26
3.29
div avg 3.65
66%
53%
div avg 53%
3.36
0.37
div avg 1.98
53%
20%
div avg 38%
100%
65%
div avg 72%
0.37
0.00
div avg 0.69
3
3
div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Matheus Camilo
50% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Jai Herbert
finished 60%
3 of 5 losses
Jai Herbert
40% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 0
can finish?
Matheus Camilo
finished 50%
1 of 2 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1514 (Matheus Camilo) vs 1515 (Jai Herbert).

Matheus Camilo red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1514
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win
Nazim Sadykhov
Elo 1592 at fight time
Expected wins
1.9
+0.1 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 4 fights
1481
1504
Jai Herbert blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1515
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 5 UFC wins
Toughest win
Matheus Camilo
Elo 1537 at fight time
Expected wins
4.8
+0.2 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 11 fights
1641
1537
Corner A recent form
Matheus Camilo
Corner B recent form
Jai Herbert
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Matheus Camilo & Jai Herbert on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.