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Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto — Honest Elo matchup

women's flyweight
Other bouts 11
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night
Oct 10, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Ernesta Kareckaite
#28 1-2-1
Elo 1430
VS
Corner B
Melissa Gatto
#23 3-3-1
Elo 1466
Final result · recorded Oct 11, 2026
Draw · Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Ernesta Kareckaite 50.0% · Melissa Gatto 50.0%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Ernesta Kareckaite 44.1% · Melissa Gatto 55.9%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 10
Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan Main event · middleweight Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert lightweight Julius Walker vs Gerald Meerschaert light heavyweight Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza women's strawweight Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi bantamweight Alice Pereira vs Daria Zhelezniakova women's bantamweight Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III featherweight Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim lightweight Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan welterweight Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro light heavyweight

Notable

Kareckaite

Has never been finished — all 2 losses went to the scorecards.

Gatto

Has never been finished — all 3 losses went to the scorecards.

Tale of the tape

1-2-1 UFC record 3-3-1
KO 0 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 3 · Sub 0
+0 Streak +0
28 Age 30
5'9" 175 cm Height 5'5" 165 cm
71" 180 cm Reach 69" 175 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1477 Global Elo 1513
1430 Elo rating 1466
Ernesta Kareckaite — Notable ▼
At a glance
Melissa Gatto — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • Has never been finished — durability signal
  • 100% of wins by KO/TKO

Ernesta Kareckaite — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 301 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
76% Head
  • Head 76%
  • Body 19%
  • Leg 5%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
87% Distance
  • Distance 87%
  • Clinch 11%
  • Ground 3%

Melissa Gatto — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 306 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
52% Head
  • Head 52%
  • Body 31%
  • Leg 16%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
83% Distance
  • Distance 83%
  • Clinch 13%
  • Ground 5%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

5.02
3.35
div avg 4.16
40%
50%
div avg 45%
4.35
2.76
div avg 3.71
53%
56%
div avg 56%
0.50
1.64
div avg 1.37
50%
23%
div avg 38%
82%
61%
div avg 65%
0.00
0.66
div avg 0.39
3
5
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Ernesta Kareckaite
0% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 0
can finish?
Melissa Gatto
finished 0%
never finished
Melissa Gatto
100% finish rate
KO 3 · Sub 0
can finish?
Ernesta Kareckaite
finished 0%
never finished

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1504 (Ernesta Kareckaite) vs 1508 (Melissa Gatto).

Ernesta Kareckaite red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1504
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 1 UFC wins
Toughest win
Nicolle Caliari
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins
1.9
−0.9 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 4 fights
1500
1515
Melissa Gatto blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1508
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Sijara Eubanks
Elo 1524 at fight time
Expected wins
3.7
−0.7 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 7 fights
1467
1473

Common opponents

1 shared opponent · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

  • L
    Dione Barbosa
    L
    Decision - Unanimous
    Decision - Majority
    May 4, 2024
    Apr 4, 2026
Corner A recent form
Ernesta Kareckaite
Corner B recent form
Melissa Gatto
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Ernesta Kareckaite & Melissa Gatto on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.