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✓ Brendan Allen won · by Submission · R5

Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan — Honest Elo matchup

middleweight
Other bouts 11
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night
Oct 10, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Brendan Allen
#4 16-4-0
Elo 1671
VS
Corner B
Christian Leroy Duncan
#22 8-3-0
Elo 1563
Final result · recorded Oct 11, 2026
Brendan Allen
defeated Christian Leroy Duncan by Submission in round 5

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Brendan Allen 66.5% · Christian Leroy Duncan 33.5%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Brendan Allen 61.4% · Christian Leroy Duncan 38.6%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 10
Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert lightweight Julius Walker vs Gerald Meerschaert light heavyweight Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza women's strawweight Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi bantamweight Alice Pereira vs Daria Zhelezniakova women's bantamweight Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto women's flyweight Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III featherweight Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim lightweight Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan welterweight Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro light heavyweight

Notable

Allen

6 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.

Tale of the tape

16-4-0 UFC record 8-3-0
KO 2 · Sub 8 Finishes KO 5 · Sub 0
+4 Streak -1
30 Age 31
6'2" 188 cm Height 6'2" 188 cm
75" 191 cm Reach 79" 201 cm
Orthodox Stance Switch
1712 Global Elo 1603
1671 Elo rating 1563
Brendan Allen — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 4-fight UFC win streak
  • Performance of the Night in last fight
  • Earned a bonus in 3 of last 5 fights
  • 63% of wins by KO or submission
Christian Leroy Duncan — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • 63% of wins by KO/TKO

Brendan Allen — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 885 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
66% Head
  • Head 66%
  • Body 21%
  • Leg 13%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
77% Distance
  • Distance 77%
  • Clinch 8%
  • Ground 15%

Christian Leroy Duncan — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 575 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
52% Head
  • Head 52%
  • Body 17%
  • Leg 31%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
75% Distance
  • Distance 75%
  • Clinch 18%
  • Ground 7%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

3.60
4.49
div avg 4.55
52%
58%
div avg 52%
3.83
2.34
div avg 3.30
48%
54%
div avg 54%
1.59
0.35
div avg 1.53
41%
20%
div avg 44%
56%
59%
div avg 75%
1.04
0.00
div avg 0.46
5
3
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Brendan Allen
63% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 8
can finish?
Christian Leroy Duncan
finished 33%
1 of 3 losses
Christian Leroy Duncan
63% finish rate
KO 5 · Sub 0
can finish?
Brendan Allen
finished 50%
2 of 4 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1611 (Brendan Allen) vs 1605 (Christian Leroy Duncan).

Brendan Allen red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1611
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
5
of 16 UFC wins
Toughest win
Andre Muniz
Elo 1656 at fight time
Expected wins
11.3
+4.7 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 20 fights
1572
1618
Notable wins
Andre Muniz 1656 Reinier De Ridder 1649 Christian Leroy Duncan 1618 Krzysztof Jotko 1607 Chris Curtis 1605
Christian Leroy Duncan blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1605
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
2
of 8 UFC wins
Toughest win
Roman Dolidze
Elo 1617 at fight time
Expected wins
5.5
+2.5 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 11 fights
1482
1698
Notable wins
Roman Dolidze 1617 Jared Cannonier 1600
Corner A recent form
Brendan Allen
Corner B recent form
Christian Leroy Duncan
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Brendan Allen & Christian Leroy Duncan on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.