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lightweight
Other bouts 12
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Aug 22, 2026 · Sacramento, California, USA
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Corner A
Chris Padilla
#14 4-0-1
Elo 1579
VS
Corner B
Nasrat Haqparast
#27 10-5-0
Elo 1540

Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Corner A Chris Padilla 50.0%
Corner B Nasrat Haqparast 50.0%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

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Other fights on this card · 9
Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues Main event · middleweight Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino heavyweight Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze light heavyweight MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones lightweight Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves women's flyweight Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev heavyweight Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey middleweight Jamall Emmers vs Lerryan Douglas featherweight Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed women's strawweight

Tale of the tape

4-0-1 UFC record 10-5-0
KO 2 · Sub 1 Finishes KO 2 · Sub 0
+0 Streak -1
30 Age 30
5'9" 175 cm Height 5'10" 178 cm
74" 188 cm Reach 72" 183 cm
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
1605 Global Elo 1585
1579 Elo rating 1540
Chris Padilla — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 75% of wins by KO or submission
Nasrat Haqparast — Notable ▼
At a glance

Chris Padilla — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 330 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
50% Head
  • Head 50%
  • Body 17%
  • Leg 33%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
83% Distance
  • Distance 83%
  • Clinch 12%
  • Ground 5%

Nasrat Haqparast — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1120 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
75% Head
  • Head 75%
  • Body 22%
  • Leg 4%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
90% Distance
  • Distance 90%
  • Clinch 6%
  • Ground 5%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

6.19
6.36
div avg 4.53
54%
46%
div avg 51%
4.88
6.00
div avg 3.76
49%
63%
div avg 53%
1.13
0.34
div avg 1.86
29%
20%
div avg 37%
80%
86%
div avg 72%
0.28
0.00
div avg 0.65
3
1
div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Chris Padilla
75% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 1
can finish?
Nasrat Haqparast
finished 40%
2 of 5 losses
Nasrat Haqparast
20% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 0
can finish?
Chris Padilla
finished —
no losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Nasrat Haqparast has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1545 vs 1512, 0 quality wins to 0.

Chris Padilla red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1512
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win
Ismael Bonfim
Elo 1515 at fight time
Expected wins
2.8
+1.2 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 5 fights
1500
1575
Nasrat Haqparast blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1545
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 10 UFC wins
Toughest win
Joaquim Silva
Elo 1587 at fight time
Expected wins
7.7
+2.3 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 15 fights
1428
1562
Corner A recent form
Chris Padilla
Corner B recent form
Nasrat Haqparast
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Chris Padilla & Nasrat Haqparast on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.