HonestElo
← Back to event card
lightweight
Other bouts 12
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Aug 22, 2026 · Sacramento, California, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Marquel Mederos
#22 3-0-1
Elo 1552
VS
Corner B
Mason Jones
#43 4-2-0
Elo 1503

Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Corner A Marquel Mederos 50.0%
Corner B Mason Jones 50.0%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Independent UFC analytics

Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.

Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.

Follow @HonestElo Next card →
Other fights on this card · 9
Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues Main event · middleweight Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino heavyweight Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze light heavyweight Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves women's flyweight Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev heavyweight Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey middleweight Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast lightweight Jamall Emmers vs Lerryan Douglas featherweight Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed women's strawweight

Notable

Jones

Has never been finished — all 2 losses went to the scorecards.

Jones

Reach advantage of ~5".

Tale of the tape

3-0-1 UFC record 4-2-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 0
+0 Streak +3
29 Age 31
5'10" 178 cm Height 5'10" 178 cm
69" 175 cm Reach 74" 188 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1578 Global Elo 1557
1552 Elo rating 1503
Marquel Mederos — Notable ▼
At a glance
Mason Jones — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 3-fight UFC win streak
  • Fight of the Night in last fight
  • Has never been finished — durability signal

Marquel Mederos — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 326 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
59% Head
  • Head 59%
  • Body 16%
  • Leg 25%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
83% Distance
  • Distance 83%
  • Clinch 12%
  • Ground 4%

Mason Jones — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 541 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
69% Head
  • Head 69%
  • Body 23%
  • Leg 8%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
71% Distance
  • Distance 71%
  • Clinch 16%
  • Ground 13%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

5.43
5.98
div avg 4.53
58%
43%
div avg 51%
4.77
4.45
div avg 3.76
52%
51%
div avg 53%
0.25
3.48
div avg 1.86
8%
55%
div avg 37%
78%
74%
div avg 72%
0.00
0.17
div avg 0.65
2
4
div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Marquel Mederos
0% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 0
can finish?
Mason Jones
finished 0%
never finished
Mason Jones
25% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Marquel Mederos
finished —
no losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1512 (Marquel Mederos) vs 1514 (Mason Jones).

Marquel Mederos red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1512
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Mark Choinski
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins
2.1
+0.8 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 4 fights
1475
1608
Mason Jones blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1514
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win
Axel Sola
Elo 1527 at fight time
Expected wins
2.9
+1.1 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 7 fights
1509
1527
Corner A recent form
Marquel Mederos
Corner B recent form
Mason Jones
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Marquel Mederos & Mason Jones on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.