HonestElo
← Back to event card
✓ MarQuel Mederos won · by TKO · R2

Marquel Mederos vs Mason Jones — Honest Elo matchup

lightweight
Other bouts 12
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Aug 22, 2026 · Sacramento, California, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Marquel Mederos
#14 4-0-1
Elo 1583
VS
Corner B
Mason Jones
#48 4-3-0
Elo 1486
Final result · recorded Aug 23, 2026
Marquel Mederos
defeated Mason Jones by TKO in round 2

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Marquel Mederos 25.3% · Mason Jones 74.7%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Marquel Mederos 53.0% · Mason Jones 47.0%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

Independent UFC analytics

Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.

Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.

Follow @HonestElo Next card →
Other fights on this card · 9
Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues Main event · middleweight Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino heavyweight Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze light heavyweight Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves women's flyweight Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev heavyweight Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey middleweight Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast lightweight Jamall Emmers vs Lerryan Douglas featherweight Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed women's strawweight

Notable

Jones

Reach advantage of ~5".

Tale of the tape

4-0-1 UFC record 4-3-0
KO 1 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 0
+1 Streak -1
29 Age 31
5'10" 178 cm Height 5'10" 178 cm
69" 175 cm Reach 74" 188 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1609 Global Elo 1539
1583 Elo rating 1486
Marquel Mederos — Notable ▼
At a glance
Mason Jones — Notable ▼

Marquel Mederos — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 399 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
61% Head
  • Head 61%
  • Body 15%
  • Leg 24%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
84% Distance
  • Distance 84%
  • Clinch 12%
  • Ground 4%

Mason Jones — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 618 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
69% Head
  • Head 69%
  • Body 23%
  • Leg 8%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
72% Distance
  • Distance 72%
  • Clinch 16%
  • Ground 12%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

5.94
6.33
div avg 4.56
60%
44%
div avg 51%
5.41
4.87
div avg 3.65
52%
49%
div avg 53%
0.22
3.38
div avg 1.98
6%
56%
div avg 38%
75%
78%
div avg 72%
0.00
0.15
div avg 0.69
2
4
div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Marquel Mederos
25% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Mason Jones
finished 33%
1 of 3 losses
Mason Jones
25% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Marquel Mederos
finished —
no losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1521 (Marquel Mederos) vs 1529 (Mason Jones).

Marquel Mederos red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1521
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win
Mason Jones
Elo 1557 at fight time
Expected wins
2.7
+1.3 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 5 fights
1475
1557
Mason Jones blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1529
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win
Axel Sola
Elo 1527 at fight time
Expected wins
3.4
+0.7 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 8 fights
1509
1578
Corner A recent form
Marquel Mederos
Corner B recent form
Mason Jones
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Marquel Mederos & Mason Jones on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.