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✓ Vitor Petrino won · by Decision · R3

Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino — Honest Elo matchup

heavyweight
Other bouts 12
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Aug 22, 2026 · Sacramento, California, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Serghei Spivac
#20 9-7-0
Elo 1524
VS
Corner B
Vitor Petrino
#11 8-2-0
Elo 1569
Final result · recorded Aug 23, 2026
Vitor Petrino
defeated Serghei Spivac by Decision in round 3

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Serghei Spivac 33.5% · Vitor Petrino 66.5%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Serghei Spivac 48.7% · Vitor Petrino 51.3%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 9
Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues Main event · middleweight Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze light heavyweight MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones lightweight Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves women's flyweight Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev heavyweight Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey middleweight Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast lightweight Jamall Emmers vs Lerryan Douglas featherweight Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed women's strawweight

Tale of the tape

9-7-0 UFC record 8-2-0
KO 3 · Sub 3 Finishes KO 2 · Sub 2
-1 Streak +4
31 Age 29
6'3" 191 cm Height 6'2" 188 cm
78" 198 cm Reach 77" 196 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1570 Global Elo 1610
1524 Elo rating 1569
Serghei Spivac — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 67% of wins by KO or submission
  • 33% of wins finished in round 1
Vitor Petrino — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 4-fight UFC win streak
  • 50% of wins by KO or submission
  • 100% takedown defense in last 3 fights

Serghei Spivac — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 471 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
94% Head
  • Head 94%
  • Body 4%
  • Leg 2%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
63% Distance
  • Distance 63%
  • Clinch 4%
  • Ground 34%

Vitor Petrino — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 358 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
64% Head
  • Head 64%
  • Body 20%
  • Leg 16%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
79% Distance
  • Distance 79%
  • Clinch 4%
  • Ground 16%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

3.35
3.25
div avg 4.48
47%
51%
div avg 53%
4.23
2.60
div avg 3.40
51%
53%
div avg 51%
3.42
3.00
div avg 1.90
57%
49%
div avg 42%
53%
82%
div avg 72%
0.43
0.68
div avg 0.83
4
5
div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Serghei Spivac
67% finish rate
KO 3 · Sub 3
can finish?
Vitor Petrino
finished 100%
2 of 2 losses
Vitor Petrino
50% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 2
can finish?
Serghei Spivac
finished 57%
4 of 7 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Serghei Spivac has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1599 vs 1519, 2 quality wins to 0.

Serghei Spivac red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1599
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
2
of 9 UFC wins
Toughest win
Derrick Lewis
Elo 1630 at fight time
Expected wins
7.6
+1.4 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 16 fights
1468
1595
Notable wins
Derrick Lewis 1630 Marcin Tybura 1612
Vitor Petrino blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1519
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 8 UFC wins
Toughest win
Serghei Spivac
Elo 1586 at fight time
Expected wins
5.7
+2.3 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 10 fights
1473
1586
Corner A recent form
Serghei Spivac
Corner B recent form
Vitor Petrino
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Serghei Spivac & Vitor Petrino on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.