HonestElo
← Back to event card
✓ Tom Nolan won · by Decision · R3
lightweight
Other bouts 11
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
Jun 6, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Fares Ziam
#23 8-3-0
Elo 1552
VS
Corner B
Tom Nolan
#18 5-1-0
Elo 1559
Final result · recorded Jun 7, 2026
Tom Nolan
defeated Fares Ziam by Decision in round 3

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Fares Ziam 77.9% · Tom Nolan 22.1%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Fares Ziam 54.2% · Tom Nolan 45.8%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

Independent UFC analytics

Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.

Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.

Follow @HonestElo Next card →
Other fights on this card · 10
Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim Main event · welterweight Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan middleweight Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna bantamweight Iwo Baraniewski vs Junior Tafa light heavyweight Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa catch weight Marcus McGhee vs John Yannis bantamweight Bruno Silva vs Edgar Chairez flyweight Priscila Cachoeira vs Chelsea Chandler women's bantamweight Jordan Leavitt vs Joanderson Brito featherweight Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi women's strawweight

Notable

Nolan

On a 5-fight win streak.

Tale of the tape

8-3-0 UFC record 5-1-0
KO 2 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 1
-1 Streak +5
29 Age 26
6'1" 185 cm Height 6'3" 191 cm
75" 191 cm Reach 73" 185 cm
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
1596 Global Elo 1602
1552 Elo rating 1559
Fares Ziam — Notable ▼
At a glance
Tom Nolan — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 5-fight UFC win streak
  • 40% of wins finished in round 1

Fares Ziam — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 389 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
66% Head
  • Head 66%
  • Body 19%
  • Leg 16%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
70% Distance
  • Distance 70%
  • Clinch 13%
  • Ground 18%

Tom Nolan — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 255 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
50% Head
  • Head 50%
  • Body 32%
  • Leg 18%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
77% Distance
  • Distance 77%
  • Clinch 16%
  • Ground 6%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

2.68
4.72
div avg 4.53
52%
45%
div avg 51%
1.58
3.80
div avg 3.76
64%
48%
div avg 53%
1.86
1.11
div avg 1.86
43%
27%
div avg 37%
71%
58%
div avg 72%
0.52
1.39
div avg 0.65
4
3
div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Fares Ziam
25% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 0
can finish?
Tom Nolan
finished 100%
1 of 1 losses
Tom Nolan
40% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 1
can finish?
Fares Ziam
finished 33%
1 of 3 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Fares Ziam has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1581 vs 1519, 1 quality wins to 1.

Fares Ziam red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1581
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
1
of 8 UFC wins
Toughest win
Nazim Sadykhov
Elo 1612 at fight time
Expected wins
5.5
+2.5 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 11 fights
1533
1584
Notable wins
Nazim Sadykhov 1612
Tom Nolan blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1519
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
1
of 5 UFC wins
Toughest win
Fares Ziam
Elo 1613 at fight time
Expected wins
3.1
+1.9 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 6 fights
1476
1613
Notable wins
Fares Ziam 1613
Corner A recent form
Fares Ziam
Corner B recent form
Tom Nolan
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Fares Ziam & Tom Nolan on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.