Other bouts 11
- 1welterweight MainBelal MuhammadvsGabriel Bonfim
- 2middleweightBrendan AllenvsEdmen Shahbazyan
- 3lightweightFares ZiamvsTom Nolan
- 4bantamweightBryce MitchellvsSantiago Luna
- 5light heavyweightIwo BaraniewskivsJunior Tafa
- 7bantamweightMarcus McGheevsJohn Yannis
- 8flyweightBruno SilvavsEdgar Chairez
- 9women's bantamweightPriscila CachoeiravsChelsea Chandler
- 10featherweightJordan LeavittvsJoanderson Brito
- 11Not linkedwomen's flyweightJeisla ChavesvsYuneisy Duben
- 12women's strawweightKetlen SouzavsAriane Carnelossi
Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Matt Schnell 22.1% · Alessandro Costa 77.9%
Pure Elo pre-fight: Matt Schnell 50.8% · Alessandro Costa 49.2%
The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.
Independent UFC analytics
Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.
Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.
Other fights on this card · 10
Tale of the tape
| 7-9-0 | UFC record | 5-3-0 |
| KO 0 · Sub 3 | Finishes | KO 4 · Sub 1 |
| -2 | Streak | +3 |
| 36 | Age | 30 |
| 5'8" 173 cm | Height | 5'4" 163 cm |
| 70" 178 cm | Reach | 67" 170 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 1484 | Global Elo | 1532 |
| 1441 | Elo rating | 1488 |
Matt Schnell — Notable ▼
- UFC veteran since 2016
Alessandro Costa — Notable ▼
- 3-fight UFC win streak
- 3 finishes in a row
- Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
- 100% of wins by KO or submission
Matt Schnell — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 514 landed total · career
- Head 72%
- Body 13%
- Leg 15%
- Distance 83%
- Clinch 8%
- Ground 9%
Alessandro Costa — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 277 landed total · career
- Head 61%
- Body 19%
- Leg 20%
- Distance 75%
- Clinch 8%
- Ground 17%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Joshua Van8.43
- 2Brandon Royval5.60
- 3Jose Ochoa5.16
- 4Daniel Barez4.97
- 5Cj Vergara4.95
- 1Joshua Van57%
- 2Cj Vergara57%
- 3Andre Lima55%
- 4Manel Kape55%
- 5Tatsuro Taira54%
- 1Jose Johnson1.85
- 2Nyamjargal Tumendemberel1.92
- 3Asu Almabayev1.94
- 4Joseph Morales2.05
- 5Kyoji Horiguchi2.08
- 1Alden Coria70%
- 2Matheus Nicolau66%
- 3Kai Kara-France64%
- 4Kyoji Horiguchi64%
- 5Sumudaerji63%
- 1Asu Almabayev4.74
- 2Cody Durden3.82
- 3Tim Elliott3.61
- 4Tatsuro Taira3.57
- 5Azat Maksum3.50
- 1Nyamjargal Tumendemberel67%
- 2Jose Johnson67%
- 3Brandon Royval64%
- 4Joshua Van62%
- 5Andre Lima56%
- 1Ramazan Temirov100%
- 2Matheus Nicolau90%
- 3Azat Maksum86%
- 4Alessandro Costa85%
- 5Kai Kara-France84%
- 1Joseph Morales3.04
- 2Jimmy Flick2.39
- 3Edgar Chairez1.82
- 4Tagir Ulanbekov1.52
- 5Alden Coria1.47
- 1Tatsuro Taira8.08
- 2Asu Almabayev7.34
- 3Tagir Ulanbekov6.11
- 4Cody Durden5.48
- 5Ronaldo Rodriguez4.92
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Matt Schnell has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1510 vs 1480, 0 quality wins to 0.
Common opponents
3 shared opponents · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.
- Jun 6, 2026
- Nov 8, 2025
- Apr 26, 2025
- Sep 7, 2024
- Mar 2, 2024
- Jul 11, 2026
- Jun 6, 2026
- Apr 4, 2026
- Sep 13, 2025
- May 4, 2024