HonestElo
← Back to event card
✓ Alessandro Costa won · by TKO · R1
catch weight
Other bouts 11
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
Jun 6, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Matt Schnell
#31 7-9-0
Elo 1441
VS
Corner B
Alessandro Costa
#25 4-3-0
Elo 1469
Final result · recorded Jun 6, 2026
Alessandro Costa
defeated Matt Schnell by TKO in round 1

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Matt Schnell 22.1% · Alessandro Costa 77.9%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Matt Schnell 50.8% · Alessandro Costa 49.2%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

Independent UFC analytics

Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.

Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.

Follow @HonestElo Next card →
Other fights on this card · 10
Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim Main event · welterweight Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan middleweight Fares Ziam vs Tom Nolan lightweight Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna bantamweight Iwo Baraniewski vs Junior Tafa light heavyweight Marcus McGhee vs John Yannis bantamweight Bruno Silva vs Edgar Chairez flyweight Priscila Cachoeira vs Chelsea Chandler women's bantamweight Jordan Leavitt vs Joanderson Brito featherweight Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi women's strawweight

Tale of the tape

7-9-0 UFC record 4-3-0
KO 0 · Sub 3 Finishes KO 4 · Sub 0
-2 Streak +2
36 Age 30
5'8" 173 cm Height 5'4" 163 cm
70" 178 cm Reach 67" 170 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1484 Global Elo 1516
1441 Elo rating 1469
Matt Schnell — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • UFC veteran since 2016
Alessandro Costa — Notable ▼
At a glance

Matt Schnell — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 449 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
74% Head
  • Head 74%
  • Body 10%
  • Leg 16%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
82% Distance
  • Distance 82%
  • Clinch 8%
  • Ground 10%

Alessandro Costa — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 256 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
61% Head
  • Head 61%
  • Body 19%
  • Leg 21%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
74% Distance
  • Distance 74%
  • Clinch 9%
  • Ground 17%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.02
4.06
div avg 3.86
39%
50%
div avg 47%
4.10
3.81
div avg 3.24
56%
53%
div avg 56%
0.67
0.95
div avg 1.55
45%
27%
div avg 38%
45%
84%
div avg 64%
1.34
0.48
div avg 0.73
1
1
div avg 3

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Matt Schnell
43% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 3
can finish?
Alessandro Costa
finished 67%
2 of 3 losses
Alessandro Costa
100% finish rate
KO 4 · Sub 0
can finish?
Matt Schnell
finished 100%
9 of 9 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1510 (Matt Schnell) vs 1489 (Alessandro Costa).

Matt Schnell red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1510
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 7 UFC wins
Toughest win
Sumudaerji
Elo 1553 at fight time
Expected wins
7.7
−0.7 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 16 fights
1537
1497
Alessandro Costa blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1489
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win
Matt Schnell
Elo 1503 at fight time
Expected wins
3.4
+0.6 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 7 fights
1587
1503

Common opponents

2 shared opponents · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

  • W
    Jimmy Flick
    W
    Decision - Unanimous
    KO/TKO
    Apr 26, 2025
    Jun 17, 2023
  • L
    Steve Erceg
    L
    KO/TKO
    Decision - Unanimous
    Mar 2, 2024
    Nov 11, 2023
Corner A recent form
Matt Schnell
Corner B recent form
Alessandro Costa
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Matt Schnell & Alessandro Costa on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.