Other bouts 11
- 1welterweight MainBelal MuhammadvsGabriel Bonfim
- 2middleweightBrendan AllenvsEdmen Shahbazyan
- 3lightweightFares ZiamvsTom Nolan
- 4bantamweightBryce MitchellvsSantiago Luna
- 6catch weightMatt SchnellvsAlessandro Costa
- 7bantamweightMarcus McGheevsJohn Yannis
- 8flyweightBruno SilvavsEdgar Chairez
- 9women's bantamweightPriscila CachoeiravsChelsea Chandler
- 10featherweightJordan LeavittvsJoanderson Brito
- 11Not linkedwomen's flyweightJeisla ChavesvsYuneisy Duben
- 12women's strawweightKetlen SouzavsAriane Carnelossi
Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Iwo Baraniewski 74.7% · Junior Tafa 25.3%
Pure Elo pre-fight: Iwo Baraniewski 61.4% · Junior Tafa 38.6%
The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.
Independent UFC analytics
Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.
Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.
Other fights on this card · 10
Tale of the tape
| 3-0-0 | UFC record | 3-6-0 |
| KO 3 · Sub 0 | Finishes | KO 3 · Sub 0 |
| +3 | Streak | -1 |
| 27 | Age | 29 |
| 6'0" 183 cm | Height | 6'3" 191 cm |
| 73" 185 cm | Reach | 75" 191 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 1580 | Global Elo | 1455 |
| 1554 | Elo rating | 1406 |
Iwo Baraniewski — Notable ▼
- 3-fight UFC win streak — still undefeated
- Top 5 · light heavyweightStrikes Landed per Minute
- 1Iwo Baraniewski11.29
- 2Zhang Mingyang6.64
- 3Carlos Ulberg6.61
- 4Navajo Stirling6.41
- 5Paulo Costa6.15
- Top 5 · light heavyweightTakedown Defense
- 1Iwo Baraniewski100%
- 2Zhang Mingyang100%
- 3Julius Walker100%
- 4Bruno Lopes100%
- 5Rodolfo Bellato92%
- Top 5 · light heavyweightKnockdowns per 15 Minutes
- 1Iwo Baraniewski17.82
- 2Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev8.45
- 3Zhang Mingyang1.50
- 4Azamat Murzakanov1.42
- 5Carlos Ulberg1.25
Junior Tafa — Notable ▼
- 100% of wins by KO/TKO
- 67% of wins finished in round 1
- 88% takedown defense in last 3 fights
Iwo Baraniewski — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 38 landed total · career
- Head 76%
- Body 11%
- Leg 13%
- Distance 32%
- Clinch 16%
- Ground 53%
Junior Tafa — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 200 landed total · career
- Head 80%
- Body 18%
- Leg 3%
- Distance 77%
- Clinch 13%
- Ground 10%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Iwo Baraniewski11.29
- 2Zhang Mingyang6.64
- 3Carlos Ulberg6.61
- 4Navajo Stirling6.41
- 5Paulo Costa6.15
- 1Diyar Nurgozhay63%
- 2Paulo Costa59%
- 3Rodolfo Bellato59%
- 4Zhang Mingyang59%
- 5Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev58%
- 1Oumar Sy1.87
- 2Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev2.25
- 3Navajo Stirling2.46
- 4Magomed Ankalaev2.49
- 5Austen Lane2.56
- 1Oumar Sy67%
- 2Caio Machado62%
- 3Navajo Stirling59%
- 4Robert Whittaker59%
- 5Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev58%
- 1Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev12.68
- 2Jimmy Crute4.64
- 3Julius Walker4.07
- 4Ion Cutelaba4.02
- 5Bruno Lopes2.91
- 1Iwo Baraniewski100%
- 2Zhang Mingyang100%
- 3Julius Walker100%
- 4Bruno Lopes100%
- 5Rodolfo Bellato92%
- 1Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev8.45
- 2Jimmy Crute2.13
- 3Nikita Krylov1.14
- 4Billy Elekana0.85
- 5Tuco Tokkos0.70
- 1Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev10.07
- 2Julius Walker8.17
- 3Austen Lane6.24
- 4Jimmy Crute6.02
- 5Nikita Krylov5.30
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Junior Tafa has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1500 vs 1458, 0 quality wins to 0.
- Jun 6, 2026
- Mar 21, 2026
- Dec 6, 2025
- Jun 6, 2026
- May 2, 2026
- Jan 31, 2026
- Jul 12, 2025
- Oct 12, 2024