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✓ Bryce Mitchell won · by Submission · R3

Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna — Honest Elo matchup

bantamweight
Other bouts 11
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
Jun 6, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Bryce Mitchell
#9 10-3-0
Elo 1598
VS
Corner B
Santiago Luna
#43 2-1-0
Elo 1488
Final result · recorded Jun 7, 2026
Bryce Mitchell
defeated Santiago Luna by Submission in round 3

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Bryce Mitchell 54.8% · Santiago Luna 45.2%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Bryce Mitchell 61.6% · Santiago Luna 38.4%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 10
Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim Main event · welterweight Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan middleweight Fares Ziam vs Tom Nolan lightweight Iwo Baraniewski vs Junior Tafa light heavyweight Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa catch weight Marcus McGhee vs John Yannis bantamweight Bruno Silva vs Edgar Chairez flyweight Priscila Cachoeira vs Chelsea Chandler women's bantamweight Jordan Leavitt vs Joanderson Brito featherweight Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi women's strawweight

Tale of the tape

10-3-0 UFC record 2-1-0
KO 1 · Sub 2 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 0
+2 Streak -1
32 Age 22
5'10" 178 cm Height 5'9" 175 cm
70" 178 cm Reach 74" 188 cm
Southpaw Stance Orthodox
1645 Global Elo 1529
1598 Elo rating 1488
Bryce Mitchell — Notable ▼
At a glance
Santiago Luna — Notable ▼
At a glance

Bryce Mitchell — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 337 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
57% Head
  • Head 57%
  • Body 30%
  • Leg 13%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
56% Distance
  • Distance 56%
  • Clinch 9%
  • Ground 35%

Santiago Luna — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 155 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
74% Head
  • Head 74%
  • Body 23%
  • Leg 4%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
77% Distance
  • Distance 77%
  • Clinch 17%
  • Ground 5%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

2.19
4.74
div avg 4.16
59%
53%
div avg 50%
1.51
2.76
div avg 3.34
59%
68%
div avg 58%
3.12
2.30
div avg 1.99
36%
71%
div avg 39%
38%
57%
div avg 67%
1.27
0.92
div avg 0.45
8
2
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Bryce Mitchell
30% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 2
can finish?
Santiago Luna
finished 100%
1 of 1 losses
Santiago Luna
50% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Bryce Mitchell
finished 100%
3 of 3 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Bryce Mitchell has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1578 vs 1528, 3 quality wins to 0.

Bryce Mitchell red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1578
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
3
of 10 UFC wins
Toughest win
Dan Ige
Elo 1613 at fight time
Expected wins
7.2
+2.8 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 13 fights
1500
1555
Notable wins
Dan Ige 1613 Said Nurmagomedov 1608 Edson Barboza 1603
Santiago Luna blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1528
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win
Quang Le
Elo 1486 at fight time
Expected wins
1.5
+0.5 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 3 fights
1486
1630
Corner A recent form
Bryce Mitchell
Corner B recent form
Santiago Luna
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Bryce Mitchell & Santiago Luna on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.