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✓ Ketlen Souza won · by TKO · R1

Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi — Honest Elo matchup

women's strawweight
Other bouts 11
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
Jun 6, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Ketlen Souza
#29 4-4-0
Elo 1451
VS
Corner B
Ariane Carnelossi
#30 3-4-0
Elo 1445
Final result · recorded Jun 6, 2026
Ketlen Souza
defeated Ariane Carnelossi by TKO in round 1

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Ketlen Souza 74.5% · Ariane Carnelossi 25.5%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Ketlen Souza 53.3% · Ariane Carnelossi 46.7%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 10
Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim Main event · welterweight Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan middleweight Fares Ziam vs Tom Nolan lightweight Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna bantamweight Iwo Baraniewski vs Junior Tafa light heavyweight Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa catch weight Marcus McGhee vs John Yannis bantamweight Bruno Silva vs Edgar Chairez flyweight Priscila Cachoeira vs Chelsea Chandler women's bantamweight Jordan Leavitt vs Joanderson Brito featherweight

Notable

Form

Both enter off a loss (Oct 2026 / Jun 2026).

Tale of the tape

4-4-0 UFC record 3-4-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 1
-1 Streak -2
32 Age 33
5'3" 160 cm Height 5'2" 157 cm
63" 160 cm Reach 61" 155 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1501 Global Elo 1497
1451 Elo rating 1445
Ketlen Souza — Notable ▼
At a glance
Ariane Carnelossi — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 67% of wins by KO or submission

Ketlen Souza — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 336 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
58% Head
  • Head 58%
  • Body 25%
  • Leg 17%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
86% Distance
  • Distance 86%
  • Clinch 13%
  • Ground 1%

Ariane Carnelossi — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 190 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
66% Head
  • Head 66%
  • Body 14%
  • Leg 20%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
76% Distance
  • Distance 76%
  • Clinch 16%
  • Ground 8%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.13
2.68
div avg 4.88
53%
39%
div avg 48%
4.00
4.69
div avg 4.16
53%
44%
div avg 54%
0.37
1.06
div avg 1.78
13%
50%
div avg 46%
63%
23%
div avg 67%
0.18
0.21
div avg 0.58
3
3
div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Ketlen Souza
50% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 1
can finish?
Ariane Carnelossi
finished 75%
3 of 4 losses
Ariane Carnelossi
67% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 1
can finish?
Ketlen Souza
finished 25%
1 of 4 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1522 (Ketlen Souza) vs 1511 (Ariane Carnelossi).

Ketlen Souza red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1522
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win
Yazmin Jauregui
Elo 1543 at fight time
Expected wins
3.8
+0.2 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 8 fights
1534
1568
Ariane Carnelossi blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1511
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Piera Rodriguez
Elo 1521 at fight time
Expected wins
3.6
−0.6 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 7 fights
1448
1495

Common opponents

3 shared opponents · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

  • L
    Loopy Godinez
    L
    Decision - Unanimous
    Decision - Unanimous
    Oct 10, 2026
    May 7, 2022
  • L
    Piera Rodriguez
    W
    Decision - Split
    DQ
    Aug 2, 2025
    May 18, 2024
  • L
    Angela Hill
    L
    Decision - Split
    TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · R3
    Feb 15, 2025
    Sep 21, 2019
Corner A recent form
Ketlen Souza
Corner B recent form
Ariane Carnelossi
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Ketlen Souza & Ariane Carnelossi on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.