HonestElo
← welterweight

Nicolas Dalby

Active #49 welterweight · Orthodox · 180 cm · reach 188 cm
Elo rating
1573 ±39
LCB 1523
Rank
#49
top 53% of division
UFC record
8-5-1
KO 1 · Sub 0 · Dec 7
Streak
+1
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -2
Last fight
Nov 22, 2025
W by Decision

Elo history

14 fights · tap & drag
May 30, 2015 — W vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos Δ+29Oct 24, 2015 — D vs Darren Till Δ+0Apr 10, 2016 — L vs Zak Cummings Δ-26Sep 3, 2016 — L vs Peter Sobotta Δ-31Sep 28, 2019 — W vs Alex Oliveira Δ+38Nov 21, 2020 — W vs Daniel Rodriguez Δ+20Jun 26, 2021 — L vs Tim Means Δ-14Jul 23, 2022 — W vs Claudio Silva Δ+20Jan 21, 2023 — W vs Warlley Alves Δ+18Jun 17, 2023 — W vs Muslim Salikhov Δ+19Nov 4, 2023 — W vs Gabriel Bonfim Δ+18Jun 22, 2024 — L vs Rinat Fakhretdinov Δ-16Apr 26, 2025 — L vs Randy Brown Δ-15Nov 22, 2025 — W vs Saygid Izagakhmaev Δ+13 14321482153115811631 20172019202120232025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":132.6,"elo":1529,"date":"2015-05-30","opp":"Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":1,"x":56.7,"y":132.5,"elo":1529,"date":"2015-10-24","opp":"Darren Till","result":"D","delta":0},{"i":2,"x":94.3,"y":160.5,"elo":1503,"date":"2016-04-10","opp":"Zak Cummings","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":3,"x":126.8,"y":193.3,"elo":1472,"date":"2016-09-03","opp":"Peter Sobotta","result":"L","delta":-31},{"i":4,"x":376,"y":152.7,"elo":1510,"date":"2019-09-28","opp":"Alex Oliveira","result":"W","delta":38},{"i":5,"x":469.5,"y":131.4,"elo":1530,"date":"2020-11-21","opp":"Daniel Rodriguez","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":6,"x":517.8,"y":146.9,"elo":1515,"date":"2021-06-26","opp":"Tim Means","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":7,"x":605,"y":125.7,"elo":1535,"date":"2022-07-23","opp":"Claudio Silva","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":8,"x":645.5,"y":106.6,"elo":1553,"date":"2023-01-21","opp":"Warlley Alves","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":9,"x":678.2,"y":86.3,"elo":1572,"date":"2023-06-17","opp":"Muslim Salikhov","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":10,"x":709.3,"y":66.7,"elo":1591,"date":"2023-11-04","opp":"Gabriel Bonfim","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":11,"x":760.7,"y":83.3,"elo":1575,"date":"2024-06-22","opp":"Rinat Fakhretdinov","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":12,"x":829.3,"y":99.9,"elo":1560,"date":"2025-04-26","opp":"Randy Brown","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":13,"x":876,"y":85.7,"elo":1573,"date":"2025-11-22","opp":"Saygid Izagakhmaev","result":"W","delta":13}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Nov 22, 2025 Saygid Izagakhmaev W +13
Apr 26, 2025 Randy Brown L -15
Jun 22, 2024 Rinat Fakhretdinov L -16
Nov 4, 2023 Gabriel Bonfim W +18
Jun 17, 2023 Muslim Salikhov W +19

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.76 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
44% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.35 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
53% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.90 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
27% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
59% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.07 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
13%
1 / 8
Finish rate
KO
1
13% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
7
88% of wins
KO: 1 (13%) 1 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 7 (88%) 7
Finishes by round
1 total
R1
R2
1 100%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1584
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
6.4
actual +2 vs expected