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Warlley Alves

Active #52 middleweight · Orthodox · 180 cm · reach 183 cm
Elo rating
1524 ±37
LCB 1477
Rank
#52
top 64% of division
UFC record
8-8-0
KO 2 · Sub 3 · Dec 2
Streak
-4
Δ90d +3 · Δ1y +3
Last fight
May 18, 2024
L by Decision

Elo history

16 fights · tap & drag
May 31, 2014 — W vs Marcio Alexandre Junior Δ+41Nov 8, 2014 — W vs Alan Jouban Δ+29Aug 1, 2015 — W vs Nordine Taleb Δ+34Dec 12, 2015 — W vs Colby Covington Δ+32May 14, 2016 — L vs Bryan Barberena Δ-36Nov 19, 2016 — L vs Kamaru Usman Δ-16Oct 21, 2017 — W vs Salim Touahri Δ+12May 12, 2018 — W vs Sultan Aliev Δ+12Aug 25, 2018 — L vs James Krause Δ-22May 11, 2019 — W vs Sergio Moraes Δ+20Nov 16, 2019 — L vs Randy Brown Δ-21Jan 20, 2021 — W vs Mounir Lazzez Δ+16Jun 26, 2021 — L vs Jeremiah Wells Δ-24Jan 21, 2023 — L vs Nicolas Dalby Δ-18Oct 21, 2023 — L vs Ikram Aliskerov Δ-19May 18, 2024 — L vs Abus Magomedov Δ-18 14811530157916281676 20162018202020222024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":170.6,"elo":1541,"date":"2014-05-31","opp":"Marcio Alexandre Junior","result":"W","delta":41},{"i":1,"x":61.7,"y":139.6,"elo":1570,"date":"2014-11-08","opp":"Alan Jouban","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":2,"x":123.9,"y":102.2,"elo":1604,"date":"2015-08-01","opp":"Nordine Taleb","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":3,"x":155.1,"y":67.4,"elo":1636,"date":"2015-12-12","opp":"Colby Covington","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":4,"x":191.1,"y":106.5,"elo":1600,"date":"2016-05-14","opp":"Bryan Barberena","result":"L","delta":-36},{"i":5,"x":235.4,"y":124.1,"elo":1584,"date":"2016-11-19","opp":"Kamaru Usman","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":6,"x":314,"y":110.9,"elo":1596,"date":"2017-10-21","opp":"Salim Touahri","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":7,"x":361.5,"y":98.1,"elo":1608,"date":"2018-05-12","opp":"Sultan Aliev","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":8,"x":386.1,"y":121.5,"elo":1587,"date":"2018-08-25","opp":"James Krause","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":9,"x":446.7,"y":100.1,"elo":1606,"date":"2019-05-11","opp":"Sergio Moraes","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":10,"x":491,"y":123.5,"elo":1585,"date":"2019-11-16","opp":"Randy Brown","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":11,"x":591.8,"y":106.2,"elo":1601,"date":"2021-01-20","opp":"Mounir Lazzez","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":12,"x":628.6,"y":131.8,"elo":1577,"date":"2021-06-26","opp":"Jeremiah Wells","result":"L","delta":-24},{"i":13,"x":762.9,"y":151.3,"elo":1559,"date":"2023-01-21","opp":"Nicolas Dalby","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":14,"x":826.8,"y":172.5,"elo":1540,"date":"2023-10-21","opp":"Ikram Aliskerov","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":15,"x":876,"y":192.6,"elo":1521,"date":"2024-05-18","opp":"Abus Magomedov","result":"L","delta":-18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
May 18, 2024 Abus Magomedov L -18
Oct 21, 2023 Ikram Aliskerov L -19
Jan 21, 2023 Nicolas Dalby L -18
Jun 26, 2021 Jeremiah Wells L -24
Jan 20, 2021 Mounir Lazzez W +16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.62 avg 3.84
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
48% avg 52%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.40 avg 3.07
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
51% avg 53%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.05 avg 1.41
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
50% avg 45%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
63% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.73 avg 0.48
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
63%
5 / 8
Finish rate
KO
2
25% of wins
SUB
3
38% of wins
DEC
2
25% of wins
KO: 2 (29%) 2 Sub: 3 (43%) 3 Dec: 2 (29%) 2
Finishes by round
6 total
R1
2 33%
R2
2 33%
R3
2 33%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1519
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
8.9
actual -1 vs expected