HonestElo
← welterweight

Jared Gooden

Active #88 welterweight · Orthodox · 183 cm · reach 196 cm
Elo rating
1451 ±34
LCB 1407
Rank
#88
top 96% of division
UFC record
2-5-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 0
Streak
-1
Δ90d +8 · Δ1y +8
Last fight
Oct 12, 2024
L by Decision

Elo history

7 fights · tap & drag
Nov 21, 2020 — L vs Alan Jouban Δ-25Mar 27, 2021 — L vs Abubakar Nurmagomedov Δ-30Jul 31, 2021 — W vs Niklas Stolze Δ+36Oct 9, 2021 — L vs Randy Brown Δ-21Mar 11, 2023 — L vs Carlston Harris Δ-23Dec 2, 2023 — W vs Wellington Turman Δ+21Oct 12, 2024 — L vs Chidi Njokuani Δ-15 13971428145914901521 2021202220232024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":103,"elo":1475,"date":"2020-11-21","opp":"Alan Jouban","result":"L","delta":-25},{"i":1,"x":99.5,"y":154.1,"elo":1445,"date":"2021-03-27","opp":"Abubakar Nurmagomedov","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":2,"x":175.1,"y":92.4,"elo":1481,"date":"2021-07-31","opp":"Niklas Stolze","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":3,"x":217.1,"y":128.6,"elo":1460,"date":"2021-10-09","opp":"Randy Brown","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":4,"x":527.6,"y":167.6,"elo":1437,"date":"2023-03-11","opp":"Carlston Harris","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":5,"x":687.1,"y":132.6,"elo":1458,"date":"2023-12-02","opp":"Wellington Turman","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":6,"x":876,"y":157.9,"elo":1443,"date":"2024-10-12","opp":"Chidi Njokuani","result":"L","delta":-15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Oct 12, 2024 Chidi Njokuani L -15
Dec 2, 2023 Wellington Turman W +21
Mar 11, 2023 Carlston Harris L -23
Oct 9, 2021 Randy Brown L -21
Jul 31, 2021 Niklas Stolze W +36

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.02 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
49% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
6.17 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
45% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.83 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
45% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
65% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.33 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
100%
2 / 2
Finish rate
KO
1
50% of wins
SUB
1
50% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
KO: 1 (50%) 1 Sub: 1 (50%) 1 Dec: 0 (0%)
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
1 50%
R2
1 50%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1509
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
3.1
actual -1 vs expected