Other bouts 11
- 1light heavyweight MainMagomed AnkalaevvsBogdan Guskov
- 2flyweightSteve ErcegvsRamazan Temirov
- 4Not linkedlightweightMagomed ZaynukovvsDamian Rzepecki
- 5heavyweightRizvan KunievvsTyrell Fortune
- 6Not linkedwelterweightAbubakar VagaevvsSaygid Izagakhmaev
- 7heavyweightValter WalkervsThomas Petersen
- 8Not linkedlight heavyweightDustin JacobyvsMuhammad Saidov
- 10lightweightIsmael BonfimvsAxel Sola
- 11Not linkedlight heavyweightMagomed TuchalovvsBrendson Ribeiro
- 12lightweightNurullo AlievvsMike Davis
- 13Not linkedbantamweightCody GibsonvsAbdul Hussein
Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Santiago Ponzinibbio 22.1% · Sam Patterson 77.9%
Pure Elo pre-fight: Santiago Ponzinibbio 50.1% · Sam Patterson 49.9%
The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.
Independent UFC analytics
Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.
Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.
Other fights on this card · 6
Notable
6 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.
Reach advantage of ~5".
Tale of the tape
| 12-9-0 | UFC record | 5-2-0 |
| KO 7 · Sub 0 | Finishes | KO 3 · Sub 2 |
| -2 | Streak | +1 |
| 39 | Age | 30 |
| 6'0" 183 cm | Height | 6'3" 191 cm |
| 73" 185 cm | Reach | 78" 198 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 1564 | Global Elo | 1600 |
| 1520 | Elo rating | 1556 |
Santiago Ponzinibbio — Notable ▼
- 58% of wins by KO/TKO
- 33% of wins finished in round 1
- 100% takedown defense in last 3 fights
- UFC veteran since 2013
Sam Patterson — Notable ▼
- 100% of wins by KO or submission
- 80% of wins finished in round 1
- 100% takedown defense in last 3 fights
Santiago Ponzinibbio — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1097 landed total · career
- Head 71%
- Body 12%
- Leg 17%
- Distance 95%
- Clinch 2%
- Ground 3%
Sam Patterson — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 135 landed total · career
- Head 82%
- Body 11%
- Leg 7%
- Distance 93%
- Clinch 1%
- Ground 6%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Carlos Leal8.75
- 2Daniil Donchenko8.07
- 3Daniel Rodriguez7.18
- 4Max Holloway6.92
- 5Jacobe Smith6.85
- 1Kiefer Crosbie64%
- 2Jacobe Smith63%
- 3Daniil Donchenko62%
- 4Chidi Njokuani62%
- 5Gunnar Nelson61%
- 1Islam Makhachev1.42
- 2Jeremiah Wells1.43
- 3Seokhyeon Ko1.47
- 4Michael Page1.57
- 5Michael Chiesa1.73
- 1Daniil Donchenko70%
- 2Seokhyeon Ko65%
- 3Gabriel Bonfim64%
- 4Muslim Salikhov62%
- 5Michael Page62%
- 1Myktybek Orolbai8.22
- 2Themba Gorimbo4.52
- 3Jacobe Smith4.52
- 4Rinat Fakhretdinov3.91
- 5Colby Covington3.64
- 1Carlos Prates100%
- 2Jacobe Smith100%
- 3Themba Gorimbo63%
- 4Myktybek Orolbai60%
- 5Seokhyeon Ko59%
- 1Jacobe Smith100%
- 2Charles Radtke100%
- 3Kevin Jousset100%
- 4Rinat Fakhretdinov92%
- 5Islam Makhachev91%
- 1Preston Parsons2.31
- 2Mickey Gall1.58
- 3Ramiz Brahimaj1.44
- 4Jeremiah Wells1.31
- 5Shavkat Rakhmonov1.20
- 1Seokhyeon Ko8.40
- 2Rinat Fakhretdinov8.11
- 3Myktybek Orolbai8.08
- 4Themba Gorimbo7.92
- 5Charles Radtke7.71
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Santiago Ponzinibbio has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1585 vs 1552, 4 quality wins to 0.
- Jul 25, 2026
- May 3, 2025
- Jan 11, 2025
- Jul 13, 2024
- Apr 8, 2023
- Jul 25, 2026
- Mar 21, 2026
- Sep 6, 2025
- Mar 1, 2025
- Jul 27, 2024