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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Tale of the tape

2-3-0 UFC record 1-1-0
KO 1 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 0
-2 Streak -1
30 Age 28
5'8" 173 cm Height 6'0" 183 cm
71" 180 cm Reach 74" 188 cm
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
1488 Global Elo 1513
1434 Elo rating 1464
Ismael Bonfim — Notable
At a glance
  • 50% of wins by KO/TKO
Axel Sola — Notable
At a glance
  • Fight of the Night in last fight
  • Has never been finished — durability signal
  • 100% of wins by KO/TKO

Ismael Bonfim — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 227 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
64% Head
  • Head 64%
  • Body 21%
  • Leg 15%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
90% Distance
  • Distance 90%
  • Clinch 8%
  • Ground 1%

Axel Sola — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 110 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
81% Head
  • Head 81%
  • Body 19%
  • Leg 0%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
88% Distance
  • Distance 88%
  • Clinch 8%
  • Ground 4%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

5.46
4.07
div avg 4.65
55%
46%
div avg 51%
3.97
5.29
div avg 3.84
56%
61%
div avg 54%
1.08
2.22
div avg 1.84
33%
36%
div avg 38%
73%
div avg 72%
0.00
0.00
div avg 0.62
1
3
div avg 4

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Ismael Bonfim
50% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Axel Sola
finished 0%
never finished
Axel Sola
100% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Ismael Bonfim
finished 100%
3 of 3 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Ismael Bonfim has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1567 vs 1488, 0 quality wins to 0.

Ismael Bonfim red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1567
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win
Vinc Pichel
Elo 1599 at fight time
Expected wins
2.2
−0.2 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 5 fights
1560
1581
Axel Sola blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1488
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 1 UFC wins
Toughest win
Rhys McKee
Elo 1435 at fight time
Expected wins
1.1
−0.1 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 2 fights
1435
1541
Corner A recent form
Ismael Bonfim
Corner B recent form
Axel Sola
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Ismael Bonfim & Axel Sola on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.