HonestElo
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Miguel Baeza

Active #74 welterweight · Orthodox · 188 cm · reach 188 cm
Elo rating
1508 ±40
LCB 1456
Rank
#74
top 80% of division
UFC record
3-4-0
KO 2 · Sub 1 · Dec 0
Streak
-4
Δ90d +7 · Δ1y +7
Last fight
Jun 8, 2024
L by Decision

Elo history

7 fights · tap & drag
Oct 12, 2019 — W vs Hector Aldana Δ+28May 16, 2020 — W vs Matt Brown Δ+41Nov 28, 2020 — W vs Takashi Sato Δ+30Jun 5, 2021 — L vs Santiago Ponzinibbio Δ-27Nov 13, 2021 — L vs Khaos Williams Δ-33Apr 16, 2022 — L vs Andre Fialho Δ-22Jun 8, 2024 — L vs Punahele Soriano Δ-17 14601505155015941639 20202021202220232024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":156,"elo":1528,"date":"2019-10-12","opp":"Hector Aldana","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":1,"x":132.7,"y":107.4,"elo":1569,"date":"2020-05-16","opp":"Matt Brown","result":"W","delta":41},{"i":2,"x":230.9,"y":71.5,"elo":1599,"date":"2020-11-28","opp":"Takashi Sato","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":3,"x":325.5,"y":103.4,"elo":1572,"date":"2021-06-05","opp":"Santiago Ponzinibbio","result":"L","delta":-27},{"i":4,"x":406.2,"y":142.6,"elo":1539,"date":"2021-11-13","opp":"Khaos Williams","result":"L","delta":-33},{"i":5,"x":483.3,"y":168.2,"elo":1518,"date":"2022-04-16","opp":"Andre Fialho","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":6,"x":876,"y":188.5,"elo":1500,"date":"2024-06-08","opp":"Punahele Soriano","result":"L","delta":-17}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jun 8, 2024 Punahele Soriano L -17
Apr 16, 2022 Andre Fialho L -22
Nov 13, 2021 Khaos Williams L -33
Jun 5, 2021 Santiago Ponzinibbio L -27
Nov 28, 2020 Takashi Sato W +30

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.48 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
48% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
5.03 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
49% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.38 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
29% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
44% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.69 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
100%
3 / 3
Finish rate
KO
2
67% of wins
SUB
1
33% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
KO: 2 (67%) 2 Sub: 1 (33%) 1 Dec: 0 (0%)
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
R2
3 100%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1541
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
3.6
actual -1 vs expected