HonestElo
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Sam Patterson

Active #39 welterweight
Elo rating
1582 ±37
LCB 1534
Rank
#39
top 42% of division
UFC record
4-2-0
KO 2 · Sub 2 · Dec 0
Streak
-1
Δ90d -16 · Δ1y +16
Last fight
Mar 21, 2026
L by Decision

Elo history

6 fights · tap & drag
Mar 18, 2023 — L vs Yanal Ashmouz Δ-33Jan 20, 2024 — W vs Yohan Lainesse Δ+33Jul 27, 2024 — W vs Kiefer Crosbie Δ+30Mar 1, 2025 — W vs Danny Barlow Δ+36Sep 6, 2025 — W vs Trey Waters Δ+33Mar 21, 2026 — L vs Michael Page Δ-16 14271480153315851638 202420252026 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":195.9,"elo":1467,"date":"2023-03-18","opp":"Yanal Ashmouz","result":"L","delta":-33},{"i":1,"x":262.8,"y":162.8,"elo":1500,"date":"2024-01-20","opp":"Yohan Lainesse","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":2,"x":409.3,"y":132.7,"elo":1530,"date":"2024-07-27","opp":"Kiefer Crosbie","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":3,"x":577.5,"y":96.7,"elo":1566,"date":"2025-03-01","opp":"Danny Barlow","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":4,"x":724.1,"y":64.1,"elo":1598,"date":"2025-09-06","opp":"Trey Waters","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":5,"x":876,"y":80.5,"elo":1582,"date":"2026-03-21","opp":"Michael Page","result":"L","delta":-16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 21, 2026 Michael Page L -16
Sep 6, 2025 Trey Waters W +33
Mar 1, 2025 Danny Barlow W +36
Jul 27, 2024 Kiefer Crosbie W +30
Jan 20, 2024 Yohan Lainesse W +33

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
1.77 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
38% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.13 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
49% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.75 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
50% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
0% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.75 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
100%
4 / 4
Finish rate
KO
2
50% of wins
SUB
2
50% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
KO: 2 (50%) 2 Sub: 2 (50%) 2 Dec: 0 (0%)
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
4 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1528
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
3.0
actual +1 vs expected