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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Tale of the tape

4-1-0 UFC record 3-3-0
KO 0 · Sub 4 Finishes KO 0 · Sub 0
+4 Streak +1
28 Age 31
6'6" 198 cm Height 6'1" 185 cm
78" 198 cm Reach 74" 188 cm
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
1594 Global Elo 1496
1545 Elo rating 1444
Valter Walker — Notable
At a glance
Thomas Petersen — Notable

Valter Walker — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 47 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
51% Head
  • Head 51%
  • Body 17%
  • Leg 32%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
70% Distance
  • Distance 70%
  • Clinch 11%
  • Ground 19%

Thomas Petersen — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 225 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
64% Head
  • Head 64%
  • Body 27%
  • Leg 8%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
75% Distance
  • Distance 75%
  • Clinch 7%
  • Ground 18%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

2.00
3.06
div avg 4.16
52%
58%
div avg 50%
2.85
2.62
div avg 4.13
43%
56%
div avg 50%
5.74
2.65
div avg 1.53
69%
38%
div avg 38%
86%
div avg 72%
2.55
0.20
div avg 0.42
8
6
div avg 3

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Valter Walker
100% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 4
can finish?
Thomas Petersen
finished 67%
2 of 3 losses
Thomas Petersen
0% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 0
can finish?
Valter Walker
finished 0%
never finished

Strength of schedule in UFC

Thomas Petersen has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1531 vs 1491, 0 quality wins to 0.

Valter Walker red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1491
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win
Kennedy Nzechukwu
Elo 1562 at fight time
Expected wins
2.6
+1.4 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 5 fights
1420
1500
Thomas Petersen blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1531
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Mohammed Usman
Elo 1548 at fight time
Expected wins
2.7
+0.3 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 6 fights
1497
1529

Common opponents

1 shared opponent · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

  • W
    W
    Submission
    Decision - Unanimous
    Feb 15, 2025
    May 3, 2025
Corner A recent form
Valter Walker
Corner B recent form
Thomas Petersen
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Valter Walker & Thomas Petersen on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.