HonestElo
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Lorenz Larkin

Inactive · Orthodox · 180 cm · reach 183 cm
Elo rating
1534 ±35
LCB 1489
Rank
—
—
UFC record
5-5-0
KO 3 · Sub 0 · Dec 2
Streak
+2
Δ90d +9 · Δ1y +9
Last fight
Aug 20, 2016
W by KO

Elo history

10 fights · tap & drag
Apr 20, 2013 — L vs Francis Carmont Δ-20Nov 6, 2013 — W vs Chris Camozzi Δ+34Jan 15, 2014 — L vs Brad Tavares Δ-22May 10, 2014 — L vs Constantinos Philippou Δ-26Aug 30, 2014 — L vs Derek Brunson Δ-23Jan 18, 2015 — W vs John Howard Δ+23Jun 27, 2015 — W vs Santiago Ponzinibbio Δ+22Jan 2, 2016 — L vs Albert Tumenov Δ-11May 29, 2016 — W vs Jorge Masvidal Δ+21Aug 20, 2016 — W vs Neil Magny Δ+26 14041444148415251565 201420152016 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":135.5,"elo":1480,"date":"2013-04-20","opp":"Francis Carmont","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":1,"x":163.9,"y":90.3,"elo":1515,"date":"2013-11-06","opp":"Chris Camozzi","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":2,"x":212.9,"y":118.8,"elo":1493,"date":"2014-01-15","opp":"Brad Tavares","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":3,"x":293.3,"y":152.6,"elo":1467,"date":"2014-05-10","opp":"Constantinos Philippou","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":4,"x":371.7,"y":183.4,"elo":1444,"date":"2014-08-30","opp":"Derek Brunson","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":5,"x":470.3,"y":153,"elo":1467,"date":"2015-01-18","opp":"John Howard","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":6,"x":582.2,"y":123.6,"elo":1489,"date":"2015-06-27","opp":"Santiago Ponzinibbio","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":7,"x":714.4,"y":138,"elo":1478,"date":"2016-01-02","opp":"Albert Tumenov","result":"L","delta":-11},{"i":8,"x":817.9,"y":110.4,"elo":1499,"date":"2016-05-29","opp":"Jorge Masvidal","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":9,"x":876,"y":76.6,"elo":1525,"date":"2016-08-20","opp":"Neil Magny","result":"W","delta":26}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Aug 20, 2016 Neil Magny W +26
May 29, 2016 Jorge Masvidal W +21
Jan 2, 2016 Albert Tumenov L -11
Jun 27, 2015 Santiago Ponzinibbio W +22
Jan 18, 2015 John Howard W +23

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.40 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
45% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.81 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
63% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.13 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
25% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
80% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
60%
3 / 5
Finish rate
KO
3
60% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
2
40% of wins
KO: 3 (60%) 3 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 2 (40%) 2
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
2 67%
R2
1 33%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1583
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
3.7
actual +1 vs expected