HonestElo
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Michel Pereira

Active #17 middleweight · Orthodox · 185 cm · reach 185 cm
Elo rating
1611 ±40
LCB 1560
Rank
#17
top 20% of division
UFC record
10-4-0
KO 2 · Sub 3 · Dec 5
Streak
+1
Δ90d +13 · Δ1y -33
Last fight
Feb 21, 2026
W by Decision

Elo history

14 fights · tap & drag
May 18, 2019 — W vs Danny Roberts Δ+37Sep 14, 2019 — L vs Tristan Connelly Δ-32Sep 5, 2020 — W vs Zelim Imadaev Δ+27Dec 19, 2020 — W vs Khaos Williams Δ+32Jul 10, 2021 — W vs Niko Price Δ+30Jan 22, 2022 — W vs Andre Fialho Δ+12May 21, 2022 — W vs Santiago Ponzinibbio Δ+17Oct 14, 2023 — W vs Andre Petroski Δ+19Mar 9, 2024 — W vs Michal Oleksiejczuk Δ+14May 4, 2024 — W vs Ihor Potieria Δ+10Oct 19, 2024 — L vs Anthony Hernandez Δ-22Apr 26, 2025 — L vs Abus Magomedov Δ-20Aug 23, 2025 — L vs Kyle Daukaus Δ-26Feb 21, 2026 — W vs Zach Reese Δ+13 14651525158616461706 202120232025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":173,"elo":1537,"date":"2019-05-18","opp":"Danny Roberts","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":1,"x":65,"y":200.9,"elo":1505,"date":"2019-09-14","opp":"Tristan Connelly","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":2,"x":188.1,"y":177.1,"elo":1532,"date":"2020-09-05","opp":"Zelim Imadaev","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":3,"x":224.3,"y":148.6,"elo":1564,"date":"2020-12-19","opp":"Khaos Williams","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":4,"x":294.3,"y":122.1,"elo":1595,"date":"2021-07-10","opp":"Niko Price","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":5,"x":361.9,"y":111.8,"elo":1606,"date":"2022-01-22","opp":"Andre Fialho","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":6,"x":402.9,"y":97.2,"elo":1623,"date":"2022-05-21","opp":"Santiago Ponzinibbio","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":7,"x":579.1,"y":80.5,"elo":1642,"date":"2023-10-14","opp":"Andre Petroski","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":8,"x":629.8,"y":67.9,"elo":1656,"date":"2024-03-09","opp":"Michal Oleksiejczuk","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":9,"x":649.1,"y":59.1,"elo":1666,"date":"2024-05-04","opp":"Ihor Potieria","result":"W","delta":10},{"i":10,"x":707,"y":78.6,"elo":1644,"date":"2024-10-19","opp":"Anthony Hernandez","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":11,"x":772.2,"y":96,"elo":1624,"date":"2025-04-26","opp":"Abus Magomedov","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":12,"x":813.2,"y":118.8,"elo":1598,"date":"2025-08-23","opp":"Kyle Daukaus","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":13,"x":876,"y":107.3,"elo":1611,"date":"2026-02-21","opp":"Zach Reese","result":"W","delta":13}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 21, 2026 Zach Reese W +13
Aug 23, 2025 Kyle Daukaus L -26
Apr 26, 2025 Abus Magomedov L -20
Oct 19, 2024 Anthony Hernandez L -22
May 4, 2024 Ihor Potieria W +10

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.91 avg 3.84
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
51% avg 52%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.01 avg 3.04
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
51% avg 53%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.97 avg 1.43
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
52% avg 45%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
73% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.62 avg 0.47
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
50%
5 / 10
Finish rate
KO
2
20% of wins
SUB
3
30% of wins
DEC
5
50% of wins
KO: 2 (20%) 2 Sub: 3 (30%) 3 Dec: 5 (50%) 5
Finishes by round
5 total
R1
4 80%
R2
R3
1 20%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1529
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
8.0
actual +2 vs expected