HonestElo
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Patchy Mix

Active Provisional #61 bantamweight
Elo rating
1482 ±20
LCB 1456
Rank
#61
top 64% of division
UFC record
0-2-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 0
Streak
-2
Δ90d +27 · Δ1y -18
Last fight
Oct 4, 2025
L by Decision

Elo history

2 fights · tap & drag
Jun 7, 2025 — L vs Mario Bautista Δ-18Oct 4, 2025 — L vs Jakub Wiklacz Δ-27 14141441146814951522 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":103.1,"elo":1482,"date":"2025-06-07","opp":"Mario Bautista","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":1,"x":876,"y":156.9,"elo":1454,"date":"2025-10-04","opp":"Jakub Wiklacz","result":"L","delta":-27}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Oct 4, 2025 Jakub Wiklacz L -27
Jun 7, 2025 Mario Bautista L -18

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
5.30 avg 3.92
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
44% avg 49%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
7.30 avg 3.04
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
43% avg 58%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
2.50 avg 1.64
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
63% avg 37%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.37
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
4 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 0
Finish rate
KO
0
—
SUB
0
—
DEC
0
—
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 0 (0%)

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1565
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
0.8
actual -1 vs expected