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Raul Rosas Jr. "El Nino Problema"

Active #12 bantamweight · age 21 · Switch · 5'9" 175 cm · 135 lb 61 kg · reach 67" 170 cm
At a glance
Elo rating
1576
Global Elo 1611 ±27
Rank
#12
top 14% of division
UFC record
6-1-0
KO 1 · Sub 2 · Dec 3
Streak
+5
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +17
Last fight
Mar 7, 2026
Win by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
1h 11m
Avg fight time
10:09
Bonuses
3
Fights per year
2.2
Ground control
40m
Since last fight
4mo

Honest Elo history

7 fights · tap & drag
Dec 10, 2022 — W vs Jay Perrin Δ+28Apr 8, 2023 — L vs Christian Rodriguez Δ-30Sep 16, 2023 — W vs Terrence Mitchell Δ+31Jun 8, 2024 — W vs Ricky Turcios Δ+33Sep 14, 2024 — W vs Aoriqileng Δ+23Mar 29, 2025 — W vs Vince Morales Δ+10Mar 7, 2026 — W vs Rob Font Δ+17 14251450147515001525155015751600 2023202420252026 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":286.8,"elo":1492,"date":"2022-12-10","opp":"Jay Perrin","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":1,"x":162.4,"y":342,"elo":1462,"date":"2023-04-08","opp":"Christian Rodriguez","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":2,"x":260.4,"y":285.7,"elo":1493,"date":"2023-09-16","opp":"Terrence Mitchell","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":3,"x":422.3,"y":226.2,"elo":1525,"date":"2024-06-08","opp":"Ricky Turcios","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":4,"x":482,"y":184,"elo":1549,"date":"2024-09-14","opp":"Aoriqileng","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":5,"x":601.2,"y":165.7,"elo":1559,"date":"2025-03-29","opp":"Vince Morales","result":"W","delta":10},{"i":6,"x":810,"y":134.6,"elo":1576,"date":"2026-03-07","opp":"Rob Font","result":"W","delta":17}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 7, 2026 Rob Font W +17
Mar 29, 2025 Vince Morales W +10
Sep 14, 2024 Aoriqileng W +23
Jun 8, 2024 Ricky Turcios W +33
Sep 16, 2023 Terrence Mitchell W +31

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
50%
3 / 6
Finish rate
KO
1
17% of wins
SUB
2
33% of wins
DEC
3
50% of wins
KO: 1 (17%) 1 Sub: 2 (33%) 2 Dec: 3 (50%) 3
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
2 67%
R2
1 33%
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 95 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
64% Head
  • Head 64%
  • Body 14%
  • Leg 22%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
67% Distance
  • Distance 67%
  • Clinch 1%
  • Ground 32%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
Never been finished
All 1 loss went to the scorecards

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1510
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
1
of 6 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Rob Font
Elo 1615 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
3.9
+2.1 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 7 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1443
1615
Notable wins
Rob Font 1615

Top bantamweight

See full rankings →
Merab Dvalishvili
#1 · Elo 1679
Petr Yan C
#2 · Elo 1661
Umar Nurmagomedov
#3 · Elo 1649
Sean O'Malley
#4 · Elo 1632
Farid Basharat
#5 · Elo 1630
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Raul Rosas Jr. on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.