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Rafael Estevam "Macapa"

Active #38 bantamweight · age 29 · Orthodox · 5'8" 173 cm · 135 lb 61 kg · reach 69" 175 cm
At a glance
Elo rating
1501
Global Elo 1545 ±34
Rank
#38
top 47% of division
UFC record
3-1-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 3
Streak
-1
Δ90d -38 · Δ1y -13
Last fight
Apr 4, 2026
Loss by KO · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
57m
Avg fight time
14:11
Fights per year
1.7
Ground control
29m
Since last fight
3mo

Honest Elo history

4 fights · tap & drag
Nov 18, 2023 — W vs Charles Johnson Δ+27Feb 15, 2025 — W vs Jesus Aguilar Δ+32Aug 2, 2025 — W vs Felipe Bunes Δ+25Apr 4, 2026 — L vs Ethyn Ewing Δ-38 146014801500152015401560 202420252026 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":337.7,"elo":1483,"date":"2023-11-18","opp":"Charles Johnson","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":1,"x":467.4,"y":236.9,"elo":1514,"date":"2025-02-15","opp":"Jesus Aguilar","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":2,"x":606.8,"y":158.8,"elo":1539,"date":"2025-08-02","opp":"Felipe Bunes","result":"W","delta":25},{"i":3,"x":810,"y":279.4,"elo":1501,"date":"2026-04-04","opp":"Ethyn Ewing","result":"L","delta":-38}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Apr 4, 2026 Ethyn Ewing L -38
Aug 2, 2025 Felipe Bunes W +25
Feb 15, 2025 Jesus Aguilar W +32
Nov 18, 2023 Charles Johnson W +27

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 3
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
3
100% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 3 (100%) 3

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 106 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
69% Head
  • Head 69%
  • Body 18%
  • Leg 13%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
84% Distance
  • Distance 84%
  • Clinch 5%
  • Ground 11%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
100%
of losses by finish
1 of 1
1 KO/TKO 0 Sub 0 Dec Never submitted

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1519
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Jesus Aguilar
Elo 1559 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
2.1
+0.9 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 4 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1476
1534

Top bantamweight

See full rankings →
Merab Dvalishvili
#1 · Elo 1679
Petr Yan C
#2 · Elo 1661
Umar Nurmagomedov
#3 · Elo 1649
Sean O'Malley
#4 · Elo 1632
Farid Basharat
#5 · Elo 1630
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Rafael Estevam on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.