HonestElo
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Rafael Estevam

Active #8 flyweight
Elo rating
1583 ±20
LCB 1557
Rank
#8
top 13% of division
UFC record
3-0-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 3
Streak
+3
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +25
Last fight
Aug 2, 2025
W by Decision

Elo history

3 fights · tap & drag
Nov 18, 2023 — W vs Charles Johnson Δ+27Feb 15, 2025 — W vs Jesus Aguilar Δ+32Aug 2, 2025 — W vs Felipe Bunes Δ+25 14871521155515891623 20242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":173.6,"elo":1527,"date":"2023-11-18","opp":"Charles Johnson","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":1,"x":646.2,"y":124.5,"elo":1558,"date":"2025-02-15","opp":"Jesus Aguilar","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":2,"x":876,"y":86.4,"elo":1583,"date":"2025-08-02","opp":"Felipe Bunes","result":"W","delta":25}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Aug 2, 2025 Felipe Bunes W +25
Feb 15, 2025 Jesus Aguilar W +32
Nov 18, 2023 Charles Johnson W +27

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
1.38 avg 3.46
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
43% avg 47%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.96 avg 2.87
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
47% avg 56%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
6.33 avg 1.39
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
38% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
67% avg 64%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.33 avg 0.75
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
10 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 3
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
3
100% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 3 (100%) 3

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1514
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
1.6
actual +1 vs expected